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黄金：拥趸、熊市与迷思（英文版）

Gold prices today are near record highs - even in real terms - implying that forward real returns may be modest by historical standards (Figure 1). Yet gold's most compelling attribute remains its historically proven ability to enhance portfolio ...

2025-12-05 0 4.81MB 13页
国际清算银行：当砖块与字节相遇：代币化是否填补了传统房地产市场的空白？（英文版）

Using novel US data from multiple platforms over 2019–25, I show that real estate tokenisation fills gaps in traditional markets. The supply of tokenised real estate is driven by pricing, demand, liquidity and supply in the physical property market. ...

2025-12-04 2 3.08MB 54页
国际清算银行：环境因素和流向新兴市场的资本（英文版）

This paper examines the impact of environmental factors on international capital flows – specifically portfolio, bank, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows – to emerging market economies (EMEs). Using two complementary approaches, we first ana...

2025-12-04 2 2.18MB 24页
国际清算银行：让suptech发挥作用：关于采用的关键驱动因素的证据（英文版）

This paper examines the institutional drivers of adopting supervisory technology (suptech) by financial authorities worldwide. Using survey data from 112 financial authorities across 97 countries from the State of SupTech Report, we analyse how organ...

2025-12-04 2 787.85KB 43页
国际清算银行：支付系统中用于现金管理的AI代理（英文版）

Using prompt-based experiments with ChatGPT’s reasoning model, we evaluate whether a generative artificial intelligence (AI) agent can perform high-level intraday liquidity management in a wholesale payment system. We simulate payment scenarios with ...

2025-12-04 3 805.67KB 25页
国际清算银行：重新审视监管资本结构（英文版）

The post-Great Financial Crisis regulatory reforms have directly contributed to a more resilient financial system and supported sustainable growth, but some concrete aspects can be improved. • The complexity of the current capital framework and limit...

2025-12-04 3 376.95KB 16页
国际货币基金组织：哥伦比亚能源转型计划的宏观财政影响（英文版）

This paper assesses the risks and opportunities of Colombia’s energy transition plan. Recognizing that a sharp fall in oil and coal production would weigh heavily on fiscal sustainability and regional economies, it emphasizes that a well-managed expa...

2025-12-04 2 1.19MB 20页
国际货币基金组织：哥伦比亚劳动力参与情况（英文版）

Colombia’s labor force participation (LFP) showed a steady and gradual decline for both men and women between 2012 and 2019, which contrasts with rising LFP in regional peers. This paper assesses the factors behind LFP dynamics in Colombia to inform ...

2025-12-04 2 934.5KB 12页
国际货币基金组织：扩张性财政政策的通货膨胀风险（英文版）

: Drawing on an extensive literature, this paper examines the extent to which expansionary fiscalpolicy poses a challenge to containing inflation. it does so by assessing how infation responds to shocks to thefiscal deficit and public debt, and by id...

2025-12-04 2 1.26MB 17页
欧洲央行：频繁发生政策事件的货币传导（英文版）

We empirically examine the role of both official monetary policy announcements and policymakers’ speeches in the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets and the real economy in the euro area. Using intraday data covering a broad cross-se...

2025-12-04 2 2.3MB 36页
欧洲央行：通货膨胀风险和异质性下降（英文版）

I examine how households adjust the quality of their purchases in response to adverse economic shocks. Using household scanner data from Germany, I document heterogeneous responses across income levels. Higher-income households tend to reduce the qua...

2025-12-04 3 2.05MB 58页
ADB亚洲开发银行：超越美丽的图片：Sentinel-2图像的单图像和多图像联合超分辨率（英文版）

Super-resolution (SR) aims to increase the resolution of satellite images by reconstructing high-frequency details, which go beyond naive upsampling. This has particular relevance for Earth observation missions like Sentinel-2, which offer frequent, ...

2025-12-04 2 2.16MB 31页
中国社会科学院世经政所：特朗普2.0对国际货币体系的影响及中国应对

当前国际货币体系面临广义“特里芬难题”难以克服、美国国内政策外溢效应显著增强、美元“武器化”趋势加剧三大结构性缺陷，这严重制约了其稳定性与可持续性。在特朗普 2. 0背景下，国际货币体系面临全球金融秩序重构、多边主义退潮、美元霸权数字化等方面的冲击。尤其值得关注的是，特朗普政府对加密货币的支持开辟了“新美元循环”，正在成为传统金融市场的 “数字美元流动性”补充。新变局之下，国际货币体系可能会朝着美元、欧元、人民币“三分天下”的态势发展，并与全球产业链供应链演进趋势相匹配的方向发展。未来人...

2025-12-03 2 1.38MB 9页
中国社会科学院世经政所：高质量充分就业的理论内涵与规模测算

促进高质量充分就业事关国计民生，是新时代新征程就业工作的新定位、新使命。高质量充分就业内涵包括实现充分就业和提升就业质量两个层面，前者依赖总需求，后者依赖政策保障。中国的劳动力市场将出现两个典型事实。一是伴随着 15 ～ 64 岁劳动年龄人口绝对数量的减少，中国未来充分就业规模将持续递减。本文测算发现，“十五五”时期中国充分就业规模为 7.166 亿。因此实际就业规模递减并不意味着非充分就业，还需结合未来充分就业规模进行判断。二是伴随着人力资本水平的提升，胜任高质量就业岗位的人口规模...

2025-12-03 3 2.28MB 11页
中国社会科学院世经政所：老龄化、延迟退休与中国长期资本流动

人口老龄化是中国面临的重大挑战。延迟退休作为应对人口老龄化的重要政策，将显著影响劳动供给、储蓄与投资，进而作用于长期资本流动。本文通过构建多国开放经济的世代交叠模型，并利用跨国数据对模型参数进行校准，探讨了延迟退休政策对中国长期资本流动的影响及其机制。研究发现，第一，延迟退休对资本净流出的影响呈现倒 U形，即随着法定退休年龄的提高，资本净流出及其占国内生产总值的比重先上升后下降。这是延迟退休对储蓄的正向收入效应和负向抑制效应的相对变化所致。第二，当退休时间延迟较短时，政策对资本流动的影...

2025-12-03 3 1.75MB 29页
高明：新型电力系统中的虚拟电厂研究综述

随着传统化石能源的日益枯竭，以风能、太阳能为主的新能源发电资源已成为构建新型电力系统的主要能源形式。风能、太阳能等分布式能源具有较强的随机性、波动性、间歇性特征，大规模并网对电网稳定运行带来诸多挑战。虚拟电厂（virtual power plant，VPP）凭借其较强聚合调节各类型资源的能力，参与电网运行调度，促进清洁能源消纳。文中首先梳理 VPP 的基本概念，综述国内外 VPP 研究现状，并总结国内能源发展现状及趋势；然后归纳 VPP 的控制方式及架构，将目前 VPP 模型划分为 4 类...

2025-12-03 2 723.16KB 12页
世界银行：镍、钢和汽车：印尼的出口禁令和国内增值

镍对于生产钢铁至关重要。印度尼西亚拥有世界最大的储备，于2014年禁止镍出口以促进工业化。本文研究了出口禁令对下游钢铁使用产业的影响。一个三部门模型表明，虽然出口禁令可能会提高国内附加值政策研究工作论文系列发布研究进展中的成果，以鼓励对发展问题的思想交流。该系列的一个目标是迅速发布研究成果，即使展示的论文不够完善。论文会载明作者姓名，并应相应引用。本文中表达的观点、解释和结论完全由作者本人负责。它们不一定代表世界重建与发展银行/世界银行及其附属组织的观点，也不代表世界银行的执行董事或...

2025-12-03 4 5.31MB 48页
TASC：抱负的时刻：通过投资确保繁荣（英文版）

The government’s investment plan, Building on Recovery: Infrastructure and Capital Investment, 2016-2021 (BoR), is extremely important but it is deeply disappointing in its lack of ambition. In the first year of the plan, 2016, Exchequer investment o...

2025-11-28 8 1.14MB 54页
TASC：原住民控制爱尔兰航空的论据（英文版）

IAG group, a UK multinational, is making a bid to take-over Aer Lingus by purchasing shares currently held by the Irish Government. In this think-piece, Paul Sweeney argues that instead of selling shares, Ireland should invest more in Aer Lingus, by ...

2025-11-28 7 495.66KB 11页
TASC：平等珍视一切-爱尔兰的经济不平等（英文版）

Nat O’Connor has a PhD in Political Science (Trinity College Dublin) and an MA in Political Science and Social Policy (University of Dundee). Nat has worked with TASC since July 2009. Before joining TASC, he led the research team in the Homeless Agen...

2025-11-28 9 2.75MB 144页

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