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靳云龙：深度伪造技术对老年人权益的冲击与适老化应对

在数字技术与人口老龄化交汇的当下，深度伪造技术正对老年群体形成一种隐蔽而持续的风险压力。高度逼真的合成音视频不断动摇日常生活中“眼见为实”的判断基础，使老年人在亲情沟通、信息识别和财产处置中更容易陷入真假难辨的情境，由此引发心理不安、经济受损与主动回避数字生活等问题。更值得警惕的是，这类风险并未止步于个体层面，而是逐渐外溢为家庭信任受损、社会交往成本上升以及老年群体被边缘化的结构性隐患。如何在技术快速演进的同时回应老年人真实的安全需求，避免数字发展加剧代际不平等，已成为亟需正视的现实议...

2026-04-20 0 997.24KB 9页
国际货币基金组织：贸易政策冲击与企业估值-梳清贸易和不确定性渠道（英文版）

This paper investigates how the 2025 U.S. trade-policy shocks propagated to global equity valuations. Country-level studies have documented the aggregate costs of tariffs and uncertainty, but firm-level evidence on their joint role after the 2025 sho...

2026-04-17 0 951.3KB 32页
国际货币基金组织：摩洛哥卫生和教育部门的公共支出效率（英文版）

Health and education outcomes in Morocco have improved and access has expanded significantly in recent years. Nonetheless, long-standing challenges persist—including shortages of medical personnel, weak learning outcomes, regional disparities, and ou...

2026-04-17 0 1.09MB 17页
国际货币基金组织：失业风险下HANK模型中收入稳定政策的福利分析（英文版）

Understanding how policies can stabilize household welfare during recessions requires a framework that captures household heterogeneity, unemployment risk, and general-equilibrium labor market dynamics. We study a contractionary demand shock in a Het...

2026-04-17 0 1.79MB 32页
国际货币基金组织：数字财政部改革与财政效率：评估哥斯达黎加采用SUPRES平台（英文版）

This paper evaluates the impact of Costa Rica’s adoption of SUPRES, a digital treasury platform that centralizes and automates cash transfer payments for social assistance programs. While most GovTech literature has focused on service delivery improv...

2026-04-17 0 1.18MB 40页
国际货币基金组织：为低收入国家制定动态稳定的公共债务轨迹基准（英文版）

In this paper, we develop two complementary approaches for benchmarking the public debt trajectories of Low-Income Countries (LICs) to assess their dynamic stability. We compare the evolution of the overall public debt-to-GDP ratios of reference LI...

2026-04-17 0 695.83KB 33页
新经济思想研究所：消费者福利标准与保护竞争标准的比较与评价（英文版）

We compare the Consumer Welfare Standard (CWS) and the Protect Competition Standard (PCS) in antitrust. While the two standards are often viewed as mutually exclusive alternatives, there is a larger overlap between the two standards than is usually a...

2026-04-17 0 1MB 48页
国际货币基金组织：制作稳定币以保持稳定（英文版）

Payment stablecoins are privately issued digital money with the potential to enhance payment efficiency, foster innovation, and improve financial inclusion. At the same time, they are vulnerable to runs and associated welfare losses. One way to lower...

2026-04-17 0 591.18KB 31页
国际货币基金组织：银行贷款利差与汇率不确定性渠道（英文版）

Uncertainty in the foreign value of the US dollar affects the US banking sector and therefore, the US real economy. In this paper, I propose a novel ‘Exchange Rate (ER) Uncertainty Channel’ and show the effects of increased volatility in the trade-we...

2026-04-17 0 1.68MB 49页
国际货币基金组织：增长挂钩债券和债务分配：太少了，太昂贵了？（英文版）

Sovereign state-contingent bonds have rarely been issued despite their theoretical debt stabilization properties. This paper revisits this puzzle by analyzing when growth-indexed bonds are too limited in scale, and when they are too costly, to materi...

2026-04-17 0 1.28MB 51页
国际货币基金组织：资本管制是否减缓了最后一公里的跨境支付？初步证据（英文版）

Cross-border payments face multiple challenges that may result in slow transaction speed, particularly at the beneficiary leg, which constitutes the last mile of the payment process. This paper measures whether capital controls are associated with s...

2026-04-17 0 501.7KB 22页
国民经济研究局：中国消费者烟草产品选择：对调味电子烟禁令的影响（英文版）

This research was supported by a grant to Cornell University from Global Action to End Smoking (formerly known as Foundation for Smoke-Free World), an independent, U.S. nonprofit 501(c)(3) grantmaking organization. Global Action (GA) played no role i...

2026-04-17 0 522.5KB 29页
张博：我国非二氧化碳温室气体排放的系统治理

非二氧化碳温室气体与CO,的物理化学性质差异明显，排放总量大、来源分散、跨行业特征明显:在我国承诺2035年全经济范围温室气体减排国家自主贡献目标的背景下，开展非二氧化碳温室气体排放管控兼有挑战性和紧迫性。本文梳理了我国非二氧化碳温室气体排放管控形势，辨析了非二氧化碳温室气体的排放过程与形成机理、排放监测与核算方法、减排与资源化利用技术及措施、减排路径与治理策略等关键管控要素。提出了以系统治理为导向的管控思路，将非二氧化碳温室气体纳入统一治理范畴，构建“一体、两翼、三层架构、四类支撑”的总体治理...

2026-04-16 0 1.03MB 15页
IAP国际科学院组织：双刃螺旋_DNA、人工智能与生物安全挑战（英文版）

Biotechnology has many beneficial applications, but it can also be used, either maliciously (e.g. for the development of bioweapons) or inadvertently, to cause harm. It is therefore a so-called dual-use technology. For fifty years, the Biological and...

2026-04-15 0 139.03KB 15页
中亚学院：气候变化对银行系统韧性的冲击：哈萨克斯坦和吉尔吉斯共和国的案例（英文版）

Climate change poses a multifaceted threat to financial stability, particularly in emerging economies. This study examines the impact of physical and transition climate risks on the banking systems of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The analysis extrapola...

2026-04-15 0 1.69MB 53页
陆潭晟：供需适配视角下民办高校养老服务管理本科专业课程体系优化研究

本文聚焦民办高校养老服务管理本科专业课程体系的优化问题。基于供需适配理论，系统分析了当前课程体系在内容滞后、实践薄弱、师资不足等方面的现实困境，指出其与当前涉老行业朝向“品质提升” 和“智慧化”转型的需求存在脱节。研究提出三大优化策略：一是对接行业前沿需求，构建“基础 + 专业 + 前沿”的模块化、动态化课程体系，并建立常态化更新机制；二是深化产教融合，通过共建多元协同育人平台、创新工学交替模式及引入虚拟仿真技术，完善实践教学体系；三是强化“引育并重”的师资队伍建设，健全包含企业专家、管...

2026-04-15 0 534.39KB 9页
任健：代际公平视角下的养老保险协同机制研究

人口老龄化背景下，养老保险制度面临代际负担失衡与治理碎片化的挑战，代际公平问题由财政分配议题转化为社会治理现代化命题。通过对政策协同、资金协同与信息协同三重结构的分析，可以看到我国养老保险制度在职责分工、资源调剂与风险分担方面仍存在信息孤岛、监管分割、地区差异与长期规划不足等问题。现收现付模式下代际转移压力的累积，使年轻群体负担预期与制度信任之间出现张力。应在代际公平理念引领下，完善跨部门统筹机制，健全激励与风险共担制度，强化数据共享与全过程监管，推动养老保险制度由单向再分配向协同共治...

2026-04-15 9 445.02KB 7页
王紫云：银发经济视域下中老年微短剧的适老化发展研究

随着人口老龄化的急剧增加，银发经济不断发展，中老年微短剧作为一种新兴文化样态应运而生，其深挖中老年用户的情绪消费心理，成为了满足银发群体精神文化需求的重要载体。本文从银发经济视域出发，深度剖析中老年微短剧发展现状，发现其在内容上多采用情感化叙事，以家庭伦理题材为主激发了老年用户的情感共鸣；在盈利模式上，融合了付费订阅与电商带货两种模式，通过营造在场感的虚拟社交空间，填补老年群体内心的孤独感；在传播机制上，内嵌算法推荐技术强化用户黏性，持续输出情感化内容塑造中老年用户的观影偏好。然而，此...

2026-04-13 0 585.75KB 8页
弥合信息差距税务数据共享与小企业融资（英文版）

We examine the impact of government tax-data sharing on small business financing, leveraging a quasi-experiment from the staggered provincial rollout of tax-data integration at a major Chinese internet bank. The results show that tax-data integrati...

2026-04-13 0 1.85MB 21页
焦瑞胜：数智技术赋能下安徽省农村老年人体育公共服务供给模式创新研究

安徽省农村老龄化形势严峻，传统体育公共服务模式难以满足老年人多元化需求。本研究紧扣国家战略，聚焦数智技术如何赋能农村老年体育公共服务创新。研究发现，数智技术通过数据驱动，能有效化解服务供需间的“信息不对称”，并降低资源匹配、管理监督等“交易成本”，从而在需求识别、资源配置、服务交付与效能评估四大环节实现精准化与高效化变革。研究构建了包含核心系统、技术支撑、制度保障与多元协同的系统性创新框架，并剖析了基础设施、数字鸿沟、政策协同、人才短缺及数据安全等现实挑战。最后，从政策、技术、人才、资...

2026-04-09 0 533.98KB 10页

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