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未来能源研究所：对能源部气候工作组题为“气候变化、经济和社会碳成本”的报告第11章的评论对温室气体排放对美国气候影响的关键性评估

对于那些指定温度对GDP增长影响随时间累积的模型，不确定性最大；在表现最佳的模型中，同时考虑抽样和模型不确定性的95%置信区间从84%的GDP损失到359 %的收益不等。GDP水平效应的模型产生了分布范围更窄的GDP影响，集中在1-3% 的损失，这与主要综合评估模型的损害函数一致。此外，包含滞后温度效应的模型表明对GDP水平的影响，而非GDP增长。我们识别出温度对贫穷国家GDP和农业生产存在统计上显著的边际效应，但对富裕国家的GDP、非农业生产或GDP增长则没有。...

2025-09-23 26 1.05MB 16页
加拿大国际治理创新中心CIGI：从和平红利到国防红利：双重用途、量子和北约目标（英文版）

In an age of geopolitical and technological disruption, defence spending is increasingly viewed not merely as a security imperative but also as a strategic lever for industrial renewal and longer-term economic resilience. The North Atlantic Treaty Or...

2025-09-22 24 885.69KB 30页
国际货币基金组织：波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的房地产市场（英文版）

This Selected Issues Paper (SIP) analyzes recent developments in the real estate market in Bosnia and Herzegovina, focusing on housing price dynamics, financial stability implications, and policy responses. Housing prices in Bosnia and Herzegovina ...

2025-09-22 19 1.85MB 16页
国际货币基金组织：欧盟碳边界调整机制的宏观经济暴露：以中东和中亚为例（英文版）

Taking the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as given, our paper evaluates the impact of this terms-of-trade shock on the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA). Using a novel methodology and fresh data applied to the lates...

2025-09-22 25 816.18KB 40页
国际货币基金组织：全球价值链的重新定位：墨西哥的作用（英文版）

The paper documents recent changes in trade flow dynamics between Mexico, the U.S. and China, focusing on the period around 2017-2023. Using product-level bilateral trade data, the paper studies recent trends in the composition of the origin of U.S. ...

2025-09-22 42 6.88MB 34页
ADB亚洲开发银行：青年、劳动力市场动态和创业在不丹的作用（英文版）

Young people in Bhutan face rising rates of exclusion from employment, education, or training, and limited access to quality jobs, despite gains in education. Entrepreneurship is often viewed as an alternative pathway, but most youth-led ventures rem...

2025-09-22 21 2.61MB 34页
国际货币基金组织：研发分配不当是否导致了增长放缓？（英文版）

This paper provides evidence that rising misallocation in the R&D sector contributed to the recent slowdown in U.S. productivity growth. I develop a growth accounting framework allowing for misallocation of R&D resources across firms captured...

2025-09-22 20 1.3MB 69页
美联储：食品、燃料和事实：全球价格冲击的分配效应（英文版）

We estimate distributional implications of global food and oil price shocks by utilizing monthly panel data on consumption and income from India, and an IV strategy that removes variation coming from global demand shocks. While both shocks lead to st...

2025-09-19 25 4.47MB 79页
美联储：分裂：外国直接投资的碎片化（英文版）

Rising geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities have driven recent fragmentation of foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper provides systematic evidence of FDI fragmentation along ideological and geographic lines across five dimensi...

2025-09-19 20 622.79KB 46页
美联储：扩大劳动力市场视角：两个新的欧元区劳动力指标（英文版）

We present a principal component analysis of euro area labor market conditions by combining information from 22 labor market indicators into two comprehensive series. These two novel indicators provide a systematic view of the current state and forwa...

2025-09-19 27 3.1MB 27页
美联储：区域演化的衰退形态：滞后因素（英文版）

This paper empirically investigates sources of hysteresis, focusing on downward nominal wage rigidity and the gender gap in the labor market, using U.S. state-level payroll employment data. Employing a Bayesian Markov-switching model of business cycl...

2025-09-19 27 1.2MB 50页
美联储：政策利率不确定性与货币市场基金（MMF）投资组合配置（英文版）

We find that an increase in policy rate uncertainty is associated with an increase in MMF portfolio allocations towards assets with shorter-dated maturities. We also find that the direction of uncertainty matters: MMF portfolio maturity is more sensi...

2025-09-19 18 973.31KB 38页
美联储：美联储回购操作和经销商中介（英文版）

We examine how primary dealers utilized repo operations conducted by the Federal Reserve from September 2019 until May 2020 and how usage affected dealer borrowing and lending. Using daily dealer-level supervisory data, we find that during normal mar...

2025-09-19 24 707.67KB 46页
美联储：定价尾部风险：2023年银行压力下的银行股权回报（英文版）

Did bank equity prices reflect growing sector imbalances before the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank? We find that banks with higher reliance on uninsured deposits, or with higher marked-to-market leverage, had lower equity returns prior to SVB...

2025-09-19 21 853.16KB 26页
世界银行：撒哈拉以南非洲地区的社会情感技能：行为和自我报告测量的验证和比较（英文版）

This paper validates a new set of behavioral measures for socioemotional skills across three Sub-Saharan African countries—Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Tanzania—and compares them to widely used self-reported measures. The behavioral measures demonstra...

2025-09-19 40 8.61MB 62页
世界银行：早期预警覆盖率、接收决定因素和益处：调查可以告诉我们什么（英文版）

Early warning systems are a cornerstone of disaster risk reduction, enabling timely alerts and protective actions that save lives and reduce damages. Yet, despite their documented cost-effectiveness and potential to bolster resilience, early warning ...

2025-09-19 41 1.19MB 29页
世界银行：国际活动与女性劳动力参与：发展中国家服务企业的新证据（英文版）

Using a cross-section of more than 33,000 services firms in 104 low- and middle-income countries from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys, this paper examines whether the female labor share premium of international firms relative to non-international...

2025-09-19 27 1.75MB 47页
世界银行：货币贫困家庭的儿童：全球、区域和部分国家在消除儿童贫困方面的进展趋势（英文版）

This paper presents the first estimates of extreme child poverty and child poverty using the World Bank’s recently revised international poverty lines. Using the international poverty line of $3.00 per day and the higher $8.30 per day poverty line (b...

2025-09-19 92 1.93MB 29页
世界银行：命令和无法控制：评估公共部门的集中问责制（英文版）

A long-established and widely used approach to management in government has been the transmission of information up a hierarchy, and centralized decision-making and oversight; colloquially known as ‘command and control’. This paper examines accountab...

2025-09-19 25 3.29MB 71页
世界银行：超越营地和社区：孟加拉国难民搬迁的经济学（英文版）

Relocating refugees to remote purpose-built settlements offers an alternative to hosting refugees in traditional camps or local communities. Yet, its consequences remain poorly understood. This paper evaluates the well-being and fiscal implications o...

2025-09-19 143 1.63MB 56页

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