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巴德学院利维经济研究所：气温上升，产量下降：气候冲击对巴勒斯坦橄榄油生产的影响（英文版）

This study investigates the effect of climate shocks on olive oil production in Palestine, a region acutely vulnerable to both environmental change and political instability. We estimate the influences of temperature and rainfall fluctuations on four...

2025-08-15 31 782.72KB 27页
国际清算银行：关税冲击后的市场波动：基于事件的目标变量自回归（VAR）分析方法（英文版）

On 2 April 2025, the U.S. President announced one of the largest tariff packages in history, triggering sharp financial market reactions. Yet within six weeks, markets had largely recovered. This paper develops an event-targeted vector autoregression...

2025-08-15 37 774.75KB 29页
国会预算办公室：基于调查的利率转移终点动态期限结构模型（英文版）

In this paper, I present a dynamic term structure model of interest rates that features a shifting endpoint and incorporates survey forecasts of interest rates to sharpen the model’s implied forecasts and estimate trend interest rates. I present a ne...

2025-08-15 27 381.19KB 23页
欧洲央行：注意应用程序：欧洲存款对数字化有反应吗？（英文版）

The March 2023 banking turmoil has intensified discussions whether social media and the digitalisation of finance have become significant factors in driving severe deposit outflows. We introduce the concept of deposits-at-risk and utilize quantile re...

2025-08-14 30 5.44MB 45页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：英国的人力资本与不平等（英文版）

The main activities of retail or ‘high street’ banks, such as accepting savers’ deposits, making loans and providing payment services, are well known. In contrast, the functions of investment banks are typically less well understood. This article des...

2025-08-14 41 4.49MB 114页
ADB亚洲开发银行：数字无障碍与减贫：全球视角（英文版）

This study investigates the poverty reduction gains that are associated with access to digital technologies by using panel data based on 113 countries from 2000 to 2022. We address crosssectional and temporal dependency with the Driscoll-Kraay techni...

2025-08-14 26 3.37MB 50页
国际货币基金组织：加勒比地区的潜在增长和生产力（英文版）

Medium-term growth prospects of Caribbean countries have weakened in recent years. We examine these trends by providing new estimates of potential GDP growth for the region. Our findings reveal a broad-based decline over time, driven by declining con...

2025-08-14 30 4.4MB 48页
新经济思想研究所：美联储电汇仍然是一种完全收回成本的补贴吗？（英文版）

This paper examines the Federal Reserve’s current financial losses—unprecedented in scale—and the questionable accounting practices it uses to downplay their impact. It argues that the Fed’s selfdefined accounting standards, particularly the creation...

2025-08-14 29 717.95KB 50页
国际货币基金组织：驾驭塞尔维亚的经济未来：生产力的关键作用（英文版）

Serbia has grown at a rate comparable to peers over recent decades, but the income gap with the EU, albeit narrowing, remains large. As contributions from labor and capital to potential growth are expected to decline, Serbia needs to accelerate struc...

2025-08-14 55 3.85MB 27页
国际货币基金组织：经济构造：美国经济结构变化和生产率趋势（英文版）

The U.S. economy has undergone profound structural transformations in recent decades. This descriptive study analyzes tradable and nontradable sectoral trends, with our findings demonstrating that the share of tradable sector employment and, within i...

2025-08-14 46 5.32MB 53页
国际货币基金组织：量化宽松的宏观经济和财政后果（英文版）

Quantitative easing (QE) has been criticized for helping fuel the post-COVID inflation boom and causing large central bank losses. In this paper, we argue that QE should be evaluated mainly on its ability to achieve core macro-objectives as well for ...

2025-08-14 33 951.37KB 52页
国际货币基金组织：让成本会计数据为公共财务管理服务（英文版）

This paper examines the role of cost accounting in public financial management, focusing on budget credibility, performance-based budgeting, public procurement, and corruption detection. Despite demonstrated benefits, cost accounting remains underuti...

2025-08-14 33 942.42KB 42页
国际货币基金组织：中国的产业政策：量化及其对资源错配的影响（英文版）

This paper quantifies the size of the main industrial policy instruments in China and estimates their impact on domestic factor misallocation and aggregate productivity. The quantification of industrial policy instruments leverages data from financ...

2025-08-14 33 1.03MB 31页
欧洲央行：驾驭利率浪潮：2022-2023货币周期欧元区银行的利率与风险（英文版）

This paper examines how the ECB’s 2022–2023 interest-rate hikes affected euro-area banks’ economic net worth and vulnerability to deposit runs. Drawing on granular, confidential data for 139 banks, we estimate each bank’s economic net worth and find ...

2025-08-14 38 5.38MB 63页
欧洲央行：ESG银行监管对新可持续技术融资的影响（英文版）

How does environmental, social and governance regulation of banks affect capital provision to the sustainability transition? As ambitious sustainability targets face funding challenges, the financial sector is tasked with channeling more private capi...

2025-08-14 39 2.27MB 91页
欧洲央行：高阶风险敞口（英文版）

Traditional exposure measures focus on direct exposures to evaluate the losses an institution is exposed to upon the default of a counterparty. Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, the importance of indirect exposures via common asset hold...

2025-08-14 33 4.63MB 57页
欧洲央行：气候压力测试对银行贷款的影响（英文版）

Do climate stress tests affect bank credit supply to brown firms? Using a differencein-differences approach and detailed data on individual bank loans in the euro area, this paper provides novel evidence on the effects of the ECB’s 2022 climate risk ...

2025-08-14 39 2.1MB 62页
操作系统智能体：基于多模态大模型（MLLM）的通用计算设备智能体综述（英文版）

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2025-08-13 25 3.43MB 36页
美联储：从银行贷款标准到银行信贷条件：一种SVAR方法（英文版）

This paper uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model—identified with an external monetary policy instrument and sign restrictions—to derive a measure of bank credit conditions from changes in bank lending standards. The model incorporates ...

2025-08-13 34 2.47MB 50页
美联储：滞胀时期的股票回报（英文版）

We study investors’ perceptions of inflation through the lens of a high-frequency event study, documenting they have a stagflationary view of the world. In response to higher-than-expected inflation, investors expect firms’ nominal cash flows to rema...

2025-08-13 24 1.58MB 82页

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