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中国社会科学院世经政所：金融制裁是否会削弱美元霸权-一个基于储备安全成本的分析框架

俄乌冲突爆发后,金融制裁对美元霸权的影响在全球范围内引发争论.文章从储备安全成本视角构建了一个金融制裁影响美元霸权的分析框架,并借助模型进行了理论推演.模型阐释了美国三项典型金融制裁措施给受制裁国带来储备安全成本并促使其调整国际储备的机制:本国实体被列入SDN 清单改变了受制裁国实际交易需求的币种结构、金融机构被禁用 SWIFT增加了受制裁国开展国际支付的摩擦、冻结央行外汇储备减少了受制裁国可用的外储规模.这些都将给受制裁国带来储备安全成本,促使其降低国际储备中的美元份额,增加非主导...

2025-04-03 11 1.44MB 30页
中国社会科学院世经政所：机器人应用与全要素生产率-来自全球生产率分化的经验证据

机器人技术作为赋能高质量发展的新动力,不仅直接影响就业需求,还通过就业替代机制和产业结构机制对各国生产率产生分化影响,导致技术红利难以均等惠及所有国家,不利于缩小各国生产率差距。本文通过理论模型分析,推断机器人对生产率具有积极影响,且“机器换人”是提高全要素生产率的重要渠道。基于多个经济体数据的实证研究结果显示,机器人应用提高了各经济体全要素生产率,但由于高生产率经济体的产业结构与机器人技术的匹配度更高、形成的就业替代效应更强,使其生产率的提升幅度更大,进而总体上加剧了全球生产率分化...

2025-04-03 8 1.22MB 21页
世界银行：有效税率、企业规模与全球最低税率（英文版）

This paper documents new facts on corporate taxation and the revenue potential of corporate minimum taxes, leveraging firm-level tax returns from 16 countries. First, effective tax rates follow a humped-shaped pattern with firm size: small firms bene...

2025-04-03 32 2.32MB 77页
世界银行：中东和北非的气候风险与贫困（英文版）

The Middle East and North Africa faces significant climate challenges, such as increasing temperatures, heightened flood risks, frequent droughts, and growing air pollution issues. These challenges are compounded by the large pro portion of the po...

2025-04-03 30 12.71MB 43页
世界银行：全球不平等与经济增长：新冠肺炎前三十年和后三十年（英文版）

Global income inequality captures income differences among all individuals around the world. Global inequality around the world increased from 1820 to 1990 as incomes in richer countries grew faster than incomes in relatively poorer countries. Howeve...

2025-04-03 27 1.26MB 25页
MDPI：工业4.0到工业5.0转型回顾：探索技术与人机协同的交叉、挑战与机遇研究

The Industrial Revolution (IR) involves a centuries-long process of economic and societal transformation driven by industrial and technological innovation. From agrarian, craft-based societies to modern systems powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI)...

2025-04-02 18 3.46MB 34页
Anthropic：人类经济指数（英文版）

Despite widespread speculation about artificial intelligence’s impact on the future of work, we lack systematic empirical evidence about how these systems are actually being used for different tasks. Here, we present a novel framework for measuring A...

2025-04-02 19 5.57MB 38页
海外子公司杠杆率与对外直接投资绩效——来自中国跨国企业的证据

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2025-04-02 13 2.22MB 14页
国际清算银行：Word2Prices：嵌入央行通信以预测通胀（英文版）

Machine learning tools that transform texts into numbers, capturing their meaning and sentiment, expand the range of economic analyses. Central bank communications are particularly important: their speeches, press conferences and other texts contain ...

2025-04-02 11 727.3KB 29页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：住房财富，婚姻稳定和劳动力供应：跨期分析（英文版）

We study how house price shocks affect marital stability and household labor supply. We address this question using a dynamic collective household model with limited commitment. We find that positive house price shocks increase the divorce rate, and ...

2025-03-31 9 1.21MB 66页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：警察基础设施，警察绩效和犯罪：紧缩政策的证据（英文版）

Leveraging unprecedented austerity cuts, this paper studies how the closure of over 70% of local police stations – while keeping officer numbers constant – affects crime, police effectiveness, civilian cooperation, and residents’ welfare. Combining g...

2025-03-31 21 18.53MB 72页
DeepSeek模型关键创新技术综述（英文版）

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2025-03-31 21 960.57KB 11页
ChatGPT的情感使用与情感幸福感研究（英文版）

As AI chatbots see increased adoption and integration into everyday life, questions have been raised about the potential impact of human-like or anthropomorphic AI on users. In this work, we investigate the extent to which interactions with ChatGPT (...

2025-03-31 22 3.24MB 57页
国家金融与发展实验室金融与发展中心（王宏淼）：2025年全球宏观经济展望与政策挑战

2024 年全球经济平稳缓速运行，抑制了通胀，避免了衰退，实现了“软着陆”。贸易回升超出预期，国际投资低位徘徊、转移明显，主要经济体的分裂分化仍在延续。随着超级大选后各国新政治周期的开启， 2025 年全球看“美”，最大的关注点和风险点都来自美国，与“特朗普 2.0”冲击而来的是全球动荡加剧和重构加速。去全球化、地缘冲突、增长缓慢、债务高企、国家和社会撕裂的重重阴霾困扰已久，世界有必要从根本上反思国家发展偏好，审视政治的极端化、经济的国家发展主义、贸易的新重商主义等思潮倾向，才能更好地...

2025-03-31 49 1.1MB 30页
用户偏爱LLM生成内容-直到发现是AI所为（英文版）

In this paper, we investigate how individuals evaluate human and large langue models gen erated responses to popular questions when the source of the content is either concealed or disclosed. Through a controlled field ex periment, participants were ...

2025-03-28 16 313.53KB 13页
世界银行：采购低增长：政治偏好对保加利亚公共采购和企业绩效的影响（英文版）

This paper assesses the impact of favoritism in public procurement on private sector productivity growth. To this end, it combines three novel microeconomic data sets: administrative data on firms, including more than 4 million firm-year observations...

2025-03-25 28 1.21MB 52页
无抵押金融科技贷款对抵押贷款市场的溢出效应（英文版）

I study the spillover effect of unsecured FinTech lending on mortgage markets. Using quasi-exogenous variation in LendingClub loan activity due to its partnership with the BancAlliance consortium of community banks in February 2015, I present causal ...

2025-03-25 18 6.99MB 68页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：更年期“罚款”（英文版）

The motherhood penalty is well-documented, but what happens at the other end of the reproductive spectrum? Menopause—a transition often marked by debilitating physical and psychological symptoms—also entails substantial costs. Using population-wide N...

2025-03-24 13 1.25MB 76页
OECD经合组织：引领人工智能未来：预见性治理策略研究（英文版）

This report was developed as a contribution to the OECD’s 2023-2024 horizontal project on Going Digital, Phase IV, under the Technology Governance Pillar, in collaboration with the Committee for Scientific and Technological Policy (CSTP), the Regulat...

2025-03-20 28 3.11MB 34页
未来能源研究所：干旱期间稀缺水资源定价的保护和分配后果

Using price incentives to allocate scarce resources is a core tenet of economics but may result in unpalatable distributional outcomes. We analyze the efficacy of prices as a means of inducing water conservation during severe drought by studying the ...

2025-03-20 21 953.82KB 74页

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