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Anthropic：人类经济指数（英文版）

Despite widespread speculation about artificial intelligence’s impact on the future of work, we lack systematic empirical evidence about how these systems are actually being used for different tasks. Here, we present a novel framework for measuring A...

2025-04-02 30 5.57MB 38页
海外子公司杠杆率与对外直接投资绩效——来自中国跨国企业的证据

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2025-04-02 21 2.22MB 14页
国际清算银行：Word2Prices：嵌入央行通信以预测通胀（英文版）

Machine learning tools that transform texts into numbers, capturing their meaning and sentiment, expand the range of economic analyses. Central bank communications are particularly important: their speeches, press conferences and other texts contain ...

2025-04-02 20 727.3KB 29页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：住房财富，婚姻稳定和劳动力供应：跨期分析（英文版）

We study how house price shocks affect marital stability and household labor supply. We address this question using a dynamic collective household model with limited commitment. We find that positive house price shocks increase the divorce rate, and ...

2025-03-31 19 1.21MB 66页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：警察基础设施，警察绩效和犯罪：紧缩政策的证据（英文版）

Leveraging unprecedented austerity cuts, this paper studies how the closure of over 70% of local police stations – while keeping officer numbers constant – affects crime, police effectiveness, civilian cooperation, and residents’ welfare. Combining g...

2025-03-31 32 18.53MB 72页
DeepSeek模型关键创新技术综述（英文版）

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2025-03-31 33 960.57KB 11页
ChatGPT的情感使用与情感幸福感研究（英文版）

As AI chatbots see increased adoption and integration into everyday life, questions have been raised about the potential impact of human-like or anthropomorphic AI on users. In this work, we investigate the extent to which interactions with ChatGPT (...

2025-03-31 67 3.24MB 57页
国家金融与发展实验室金融与发展中心（王宏淼）：2025年全球宏观经济展望与政策挑战

2024 年全球经济平稳缓速运行，抑制了通胀，避免了衰退，实现了“软着陆”。贸易回升超出预期，国际投资低位徘徊、转移明显，主要经济体的分裂分化仍在延续。随着超级大选后各国新政治周期的开启， 2025 年全球看“美”，最大的关注点和风险点都来自美国，与“特朗普 2.0”冲击而来的是全球动荡加剧和重构加速。去全球化、地缘冲突、增长缓慢、债务高企、国家和社会撕裂的重重阴霾困扰已久，世界有必要从根本上反思国家发展偏好，审视政治的极端化、经济的国家发展主义、贸易的新重商主义等思潮倾向，才能更好地...

2025-03-31 1181 1.1MB 30页
用户偏爱LLM生成内容-直到发现是AI所为（英文版）

In this paper, we investigate how individuals evaluate human and large langue models gen erated responses to popular questions when the source of the content is either concealed or disclosed. Through a controlled field ex periment, participants were ...

2025-03-28 24 313.53KB 13页
世界银行：采购低增长：政治偏好对保加利亚公共采购和企业绩效的影响（英文版）

This paper assesses the impact of favoritism in public procurement on private sector productivity growth. To this end, it combines three novel microeconomic data sets: administrative data on firms, including more than 4 million firm-year observations...

2025-03-25 41 1.21MB 52页
无抵押金融科技贷款对抵押贷款市场的溢出效应（英文版）

I study the spillover effect of unsecured FinTech lending on mortgage markets. Using quasi-exogenous variation in LendingClub loan activity due to its partnership with the BancAlliance consortium of community banks in February 2015, I present causal ...

2025-03-25 23 6.99MB 68页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：更年期“罚款”（英文版）

The motherhood penalty is well-documented, but what happens at the other end of the reproductive spectrum? Menopause—a transition often marked by debilitating physical and psychological symptoms—also entails substantial costs. Using population-wide N...

2025-03-24 19 1.25MB 76页
OECD经合组织：引领人工智能未来：预见性治理策略研究（英文版）

This report was developed as a contribution to the OECD’s 2023-2024 horizontal project on Going Digital, Phase IV, under the Technology Governance Pillar, in collaboration with the Committee for Scientific and Technological Policy (CSTP), the Regulat...

2025-03-20 51 3.11MB 34页
未来能源研究所：干旱期间稀缺水资源定价的保护和分配后果

Using price incentives to allocate scarce resources is a core tenet of economics but may result in unpalatable distributional outcomes. We analyze the efficacy of prices as a means of inducing water conservation during severe drought by studying the ...

2025-03-20 29 953.82KB 74页
国际清算银行：拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的快速支付和金融普惠（英文版）

Most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are implementing fast payment systems (FPS), often with the goal of enhancing access to and use of affordable financial services. FPS offer immediate transfer of funds on a 24x7 basis between end user...

2025-03-19 28 729.36KB 20页
国际清算银行：收益率曲线上的货币政策：央行会影响长期实际利率吗？（英文版）

This paper presents theory and evidence to advance the notion that very persistent policy-induced interest rate changes may have only weak effects on activity. This arises when consumption-savings decisions are not primarily driven by intertemporal s...

2025-03-19 21 1.22MB 63页
ACT Education Corp：增强型ACT链接研究报告

从2025年4月开始，ACT将引入ACT的增强版形式。 ® 测试全国在线考试，预计到2026年春季在全国、州和地区以及国际的纸笔考试和在线考试参与者中全面推广。ACT通过改变考试长度和考试时间、每个题目提供更多时间、重新平衡报告类别、增加嵌入式实地测试题目、将科学测试设为可选以及将ACT综合分数从英语、数学、阅读和科学（EMRS）的平均分改为仅英语、数学和阅读（EMR）的平均分进行了重大更新。这些增强功能的详细信息可在ACT网站上查看（）。 www.act.org/actenhance...

2025-03-19 21 1.54MB 25页
国际货币基金组织：欧洲的长期支出压力

欧洲国家面临高、上升且持续时间长的支出压力，凸显了需要重新关注财政政策以及全面的结构性改革，以使他们的经济为未来几十年做好准备。在现有的财政负担——体现在几个国家的高赤字和债务比率中，受到近期冲击和财政巩固需要的影响——之上，欧洲五个关键领域的支出压力即将到来且正在增长：由人口老龄化驱动的养老金和医疗保险/长期护理支出、气候转型的成本、增加的国防开支以及更高的政府借贷成本。提升对问题的认识并实施这一议程将不会是一件容易的任务。纳入长期支出压力、并由全面分析和数据支持的精心设计的财政框架...

2025-03-19 26 3.84MB 52页
国际货币基金组织：货币政策中的保险公司渠道

我们研究了人寿保险公司在传导美国货币政策中的作用。保险公司具有独特的长期负债。我们认为，他们面临着通过投资长期政府债务来匹配负债期限暴露与通过转向风险较高但期限较短的个人债务来获得更高收益之间的权衡。我们发现，由于这种权衡，长期无风险利率在塑造保险公司对风险私人债务的需求方面发挥着关键作用。提高长期无风险利率的紧缩性货币政策冲击会降低保险公司的私人债务需求，提高风险溢价。我们使用细粒度、高频数据和监管变化来追踪保险公司的投资行为如何将货币政策冲击传递到风险溢价中。...

2025-03-19 34 2.39MB 50页
国家智商水平与社会经济发展（英文版）

Using 47 indicators of socioeconomic development and various sources of performance on cognitive tests, we constructed the SDI (socioeconomic development index) and a set of national IQs for 197 nations, the latter using no geographic imputations. Co...

2025-03-19 27 4.22MB 63页

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