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英国财政研究所（IFS）：在具有交互式固定效果的面板中进行强有力的估计和推断（英文版）

This paper develops a novel method for policy choice in a dynamic setting where the available data is a multi-variate time series. Building on the statistical treatment choice framework, we propose Time-series Empirical Welfare Maximization (T-EWM) m...

2025-03-04 19 3.22MB 88页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：具有目标工具的治疗效果（英文版）

Multivalued treatments are commonplace in applications. We explore the use of discrete-valued instruments to control for selection bias in this setting. Our discussion revolves around the concept of targeting: which instruments target which treatment...

2025-03-04 15 639.3KB 67页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：从差异中学习说服的效果（英文版）

The persuasion rate is a key parameter for measuring the causal effect of a directional message on influencing the recipient’s behavior. Its identification has relied on exogenous treatment or the availability of credible instruments, but the require...

2025-03-04 19 665.98KB 66页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：犯罪网络中的溢出行为共同犯罪者死亡的证据（英文版）

We study spillover eects within criminal networks by leveraging the deaths of co-oenders as a source of causal identi cation. We nd that the death of a co-oender signi cantly reduces the criminal activities of other network members. These spillover ...

2025-03-04 33 867.02KB 47页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：婚姻分类的变化美国的理论和证据（英文版）

Positive assortative matching refers to the tendency of individuals with similar characteristics to form partnerships. Measuring the extent to which assortative matching differs between two economies is challenging when the marginal distributions of ...

2025-03-04 25 1.27MB 51页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：感觉到的冲击和冲动反应（英文版）

This paper develops a novel approach that leverages the information contained in expectations datasets to derive empirical measures of beliefs regarding economic shocks and their dynamic effects. Utilizing a panel of expectation revisions for a singl...

2025-03-04 23 1.11MB 53页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：资源意外收入、公共支出和地方经济（英文版）

We use plausibly exogenous variation in the redistribution of natural resource tax revenues in Peru to study whether transfers to local governments can stimulate economic activity in lowincome areas. We show that resource windfalls to non-extractive ...

2025-03-04 15 4.24MB 75页
加拿大国际治理创新中心（CIGI）：一代大赦国际、民主和人权（英文版）

isinformation is not new, but given how disinformation campaigns are constructed, there is almost no stage that will not be rendered more effective by the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI). Given the unsatisfactory nature of current tool...

2025-03-04 23 334.41KB 14页
微软&卡内基梅隆大学：生成式人工智能对批判性思维的影响调查（英文版）

The rise of Generative AI (GenAI) in knowledge workflows raises questions about its impact on critical thinking skills and practices. We survey 319 knowledge workers to investigate 1) when and how they perceive the enaction of critical thinking when ...

2025-03-03 44 998.69KB 23页
阿斯彭研究所：回忆越战：悲剧、教训与非常规和平力量（英文版）

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2025-03-03 17 610.24KB 11页
国际货币基金组织：沙堡与金融体系：沙堆隐喻（英文版）

Social welfare costs from bank resolution, including contagion and moral hazard, are often thought to be minimized when supervisors can direct the merger of a failing bank with a sound, healthy one. However, social losses may become even larger if t...

2025-02-28 27 2.41MB 45页
国际货币基金组织：深度一体化的经济效益：2004年欧盟扩大20年后（英文版）

EU enlargement has stalled since the last member joined over ten years ago, marking the longest period without expansion since 1973. This elapsed time contrasts with the potential income gains membership promises. Drawing on the biggest EU enlargem...

2025-02-28 31 1.07MB 21页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：支付弱势青少年上学的短期和长期影响（英文版）

We evaluate the short- and long-run effects of a large conditional cash transfer program that paid students to remain in full-time education beyond the compulsory school-leaving age. The Education Maintenance Allowance paid teenagers from low-income ...

2025-02-27 38 679.69KB 55页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：想象一下你25岁的生活：性别一致性和后期生活的结果（英文版）

Using thousands of essays written by 11-year-olds in 1969, we construct an index measuring girls’ conformity to gender norms. We link this index to outcomes over the life-cycle. Conditional on age-11 covariates, a one standard deviation increase in o...

2025-02-27 23 3.35MB 73页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：多任务,两部分合同和集中医生任务的应用（英文版）

The optimal design of incentive contracts critically depends on whether the tasks performed by agents are complementary or substitutable, yet empirical evidence on this remains limited. This paper develops a novel empirical strategy to identify compl...

2025-02-27 35 3.05MB 90页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：用火山爆发来估计空气污染对学生考试成绩的影响（英文版）

We pair variation stemming from volcanic eruptions with the census of Hawai‘i’s public schools student test scores to estimate the impact of PM2.5 and SO2 on student performance. Increased particulate pollution decreases test scores. These results ar...

2025-02-27 23 2.05MB 71页
大语言模型最新综述：能力与局限性分析（英文版）

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, particularly with the development ofLarge Language Models (LLMs) built on the transformer architecture, has redefined thecapabilities of natural language processing. These models now exhibit remarkabl...

2025-02-26 45 10.65MB 174页
国际清洁运输理事会：加快零排放重型车辆市场的供应方监管主要政策的最佳做法（英文版）

As the technology to manufacture heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) that produce zero tailpipe emissions grows increasingly mature, a path forward for addressing the climate and air quality impacts from these vehicles is emerging. Currently, HDVs are the sec...

2025-02-25 30 333.51KB 15页
欧洲央行：机构投资者和房价（英文版）

Institutional investors, such as investment funds, are playing an increasingly important role in residential real estate markets. This raises the possibility that their actions might drive aggregate market outcomes and may change how and which macrof...

2025-02-25 22 3.06MB 52页
欧洲央行：气候变化政策和技术：与机构和治理的传播和互动（英文版）

Climate change is a global-scale structural change, affecting economies across the world, alongside global fragmentation, digitalisation and demographics. This paper analyses the diffusion of climate policies and technologies and the role of institut...

2025-02-25 19 2.42MB 43页

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