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美联储：线性状态空间模型中增强鲁棒滤波和预测的缺失数据替换（英文版）

Replacing faulty measurements with missing values can suppress outlier-induced distortions in state-space inference. We therefore put forward two complementary methods for enhanced outlier-robust filtering and forecasting: supervised missing data sub...

2025-01-08 26 2.47MB 38页
世界银行：巴基斯坦的贫困预测：预测与预报（英文版）

In 2019, 21.9 percent of the population in Pakistan lived below the national poverty line. Since then, the COVID-19 pandemic, devastating floods in 2022, and a macro-fiscal crisis with record inflation have profoundly impacted economic activity and i...

2025-01-08 663 903.02KB 27页
世界银行：巴基斯坦贫困地图2019-2020（英文版）

This paper summarizes the approach used to estimate monetary poverty for Pakistan in 2019–20 at the district level. The small area estimation method is used to impute welfare from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2018–19 into the Pakistan ...

2025-01-08 683 5.4MB 43页
大模型如何判决？从生成到判决：大型语言模型作为裁判的机遇与挑战（英文版）

Assessment and evaluation have long been criti.cal challenges in artificial intelligence (Al) andnatural language processing (NLP). However,traditional methods, whether matching-basedor embedding-based, often fall short of judg.ing subtle attributes ...

2025-01-06 32 1.91MB 32页
哈尔滨工业大学：城市更新规划与历史文化遗产保护的平衡探讨

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2025-01-04 91 571.09KB 3页
厦门大学：城市更新中的财务问题

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2025-01-04 47 4.25MB 9页
城市更新的战略性研究——以大伦敦规划为例

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2025-01-04 178 963.35KB 12页
深圳市城市规划设计院：多元主体协同合作的城市更新机制研究——以深圳为例

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2025-01-04 33 1.66MB 7页
他者观念塑造全球治理合作的路径分析

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2025-01-04 34 1.08MB 25页
人工智能和机器学习对网络安全的影响（英文版）

As internet technology proliferate in volume and complexity, the ever-evolving landscape of malicious cyberattacks presents unprecedented security risks in cyberspace. Cybersecurity challenges have been further exacerbated by the continuous growth ...

2025-01-03 64 2.76MB 273页
OpenAI：2024代理型AI系统管理实践（英文版）

Agentic AI systems—AI systems that can pursue complex goals with limited direct supervision— are likely to be broadly useful if we can integrate them responsibly into our society. While such systems have substantial potential to help people more effi...

2024-12-26 61 369.4KB 23页
美联储：测度通货膨胀与新凯恩斯模型（英文版）

Researchers typically compare inflation in the new Keynesian (NK) model to published inflation measures constructed from indices like the CPI. Inflation in the standard NK model without price indexation is bounded above. The model analogue of fixed-w...

2024-12-26 36 453.76KB 12页
美联储：衡量欧元区产出缺口（英文版）

We measure the Euro Area (EA) output gap and potential output using a non-stationary dynamic factor model estimated on a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables. From 2012 to 2023, we estimate that the EA economy was tighter than the E...

2024-12-26 44 3.01MB 51页
美联储：生命周期投资组合选择与异质性股票市场预期（英文版）

Survey measurements of households’ expectations about U.S. equity returns show substantial heterogeneity and large departures from the historical distribution of actual returns. The average household perceives a lower probability of positive returns ...

2024-12-26 44 703.31KB 98页
美联储：隐藏风险（英文版）

Since 2013, large U.S. hedge fund advisers have been required to report risk exposures in their regulatory filings. Using these data, we first establish that managers’ perceptions of risk contain useful information that is not embedded in fund return...

2024-12-26 46 928.5KB 60页
美联储：治疗效果的市场解读（英文版）

Markets, likened to an invisible hand, often appear to contradict econometric assumptions that rule out spillovers of one person’s treatment on another’s outcomes. This paper provides a simple statistical framework highlighting that controls are indi...

2024-12-26 24 855.93KB 34页
国会预算办公室：提高关税的说明性政策的影响（英文版）

You asked about the budgetary, economic, and distributional effects of policies that would raise tariff rates on goods imported into the United States. Specifically, you asked the Congressional Budget Office to estimate the effects of permanently inc...

2024-12-26 25 243.51KB 9页
国会预算办公室：重新审视债务与长期利率之间的关系（英文版）

In forming its long-run projections of the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that a 1 percentage-point increase in the projected ratio of debt to gross domestic product raises average long-run interest...

2024-12-26 36 957.98KB 33页
国际清算银行：财政刺激计划和家庭预期（英文版）

Fiscal decisions develop through multiple stages of political discussions and lengthy legislative processes. We propose a measure of public attention to fiscal policy news based on Google Trends and investigate the reaction of households’ expectation...

2024-12-26 36 840KB 38页
国际清算银行：2024年零售中央银行数字货币（CBDC）架构提案（英文版）

As central banks explore retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), there is value in sharing experiences and working together on a proposed retail CBDC architecture. This architecture defines how a CBDC will be issued and circulated, and what r...

2024-12-26 64 1.68MB 22页

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