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美联储：增加税收，减少再融资？抵押贷款利息扣除与货币政策传导（英文版）

We study how the mortgage interest deduction (MID) affects refinancing. Households who deduct mortgage interest from their taxes face a lower post-tax mortgage rate, reducing the interest savings from refinancing net of taxes. We estimate the effect ...

2024-10-15 207 2.35MB 50页
2024年摩根士丹利宏观策略谈：发布会的深意，四两拨千斤

财政部发布会主要聚焦于保护民营企业，没有直接出台大规模刺激消费的政策，但符合此前对财政政策温和转向的预期。财政部在重组债务、刺激经济和恢复企业家信心这三方面做出了明确宣示，特别是地方债务化解和房地产库存问题上有较大进展。 •财政部明确表示将通过中央政府介入来化解地方债务，预计未来两至三年内约有 6 万亿人民币用于此目的。此外，还同意使用政府债券购买市场上卖不出去的商品房，以减少房地产库存。这是首次使用政府财政资金而非再贷款进行此类操作，显示出决策层在解决存量问题上的坚定态度。...

2024-10-15 205 227.65KB 15页
世界银行：印度绿色与棕色就业特征研究（英文版）

Transitioning toward sustainable development practices is expected to result in broad changes to economic activity, which will subsequently impact labor markets and change the demand for skills. India established the Skill Council for Green Jobs to i...

2024-10-14 100 1.53MB 53页
Moshi：2024实时对话的语音-文本基础模型技术（英文版）

We introduce Moshi, a speech-text foundation model and full-duplex spoken dialogue framework. Current systems for spoken dialogue rely on pipelines of independent components, namely voice activity detection, speech recognition, textual dialogue and t...

2024-10-14 29 4.54MB 67页
世界银行：改进的家庭调查如何影响国家和国际贫困率（英文版）

To effectively address poverty, it is essential that countries have the tools and means to accurately measure people’s living standards. Most countries rely on data collected from household surveys to measure monetary poverty, defining households as ...

2024-10-14 181 492.56KB 8页
世界银行：个人主动性培训对创业成功的长期和持久影响（英文版）

A randomized experiment in Togo found that personal initiative training for small businesses resulted in large and significant impacts for both men and women after two years (Campos et al, 2017). This paper revisits these entrepreneurs after seven ye...

2024-10-14 114 1.06MB 41页
世界银行：更多知情的公民会做出更好的气候政策决策吗？（英文版）

This study explores the relationship between perceptions of catastrophic events and beliefs about climate change. Using data from the 2023 Life in Transition Survey, the study finds that contrary to conventional wisdom, more accurate knowledge about ...

2024-10-14 166 1.29MB 33页
世界银行：国内法律与政府采购中的保护主义

This paper examines how procurement rules affect international trade, leveraging a novel dataset that characterizes national laws across 141 countries. Text analysis of national laws on government procurement identifies prevalent protectionist measur...

2024-10-14 185 4.43MB 45页
世界银行：后双重选择拉索在田间试验中的应用（英文版）

The post-double selection Lasso estimator has become a popular way of selecting control variables when analyzing randomized experiments. This is done to try to improve precision, and reduce bias from attrition or chance imbalances. This paper re-esti...

2024-10-14 49 1.99MB 44页
世界银行：绘制撒哈拉以南非洲不受控制的光伏水泵对依赖地下水的生态系统构成的风险（英文版）

Photovoltaic-powered groundwater pumping offers a transformative solution for water services in underserved areas. However, without proper regulation, this technology could overexploit groundwater resources, threatening the groundwater-dependent ecos...

2024-10-14 190 1.47MB 14页
世界银行：意外需求冲击下的收益分配分析（英文版）

This paper exploits gaps between observed and recently forecasted Gross Domestic Product growth in export destinations to estimate the effects of unexpected demand shocks on worker compensation. Using employer-employee panel data, the paper finds tha...

2024-10-12 64 1.25MB 74页
FAO联合国粮农组织：减少粮食损失和浪费：政策和研究面临的五个挑战（英文版）

Despite broad agreement in policy circles on the need to reduce food loss and waste (FLW), considerable gaps in information still exist. This paper identifies policy-relevant information gaps, summarizes recent research that tries to fill these gaps ...

2024-10-12 256 452.91KB 9页
世界银行：乌桕：在家庭财富计量中考虑财产使用权（英文版）

This paper discusses the inclusion of usufruct rights in household wealth estimates, emphasizing the theoretical rationale for adjusting traditional estimates that do not include this component. It then applies this concept to the Italian context usi...

2024-10-12 94 993.22KB 19页
世界银行：小国的财政挑战：抵御风暴，重建韧性（英文版）

The COVID-19 pandemic and the global shocks that followed have worsened fiscal and debt positions in small states, intensifying their already substantial fiscal challenges— especially the need to manage more frequent climate change–related natural di...

2024-10-12 57 929.06KB 61页
世界银行：需要乡村选举：地方政府的更替和表现（英文版）

In many countries, local governments struggle with inefficiency and corruption, often perpetuated by entrenched elites. This paper explores how leadership changes affect bureaucratic performance at the local level by combining detailed personnel surv...

2024-10-12 54 1.75MB 70页
世界银行：企业官僚的财务溢价与实际成本（英文版）

This paper characterizes finance allocation distortions in capital markets across state-owned and private-owned enterprises. It does so by implementing Whited and Zhao’s (2021) methodology to infer idiosyncratic financial distortions on a novel firm-...

2024-10-12 81 826.66KB 50页
世界银行：燃料补贴改革：文献教训和通过安哥拉投入产出表评估不同部门的价格冲击（英文版）

Global oil prices have surged in recent decades, significantly hurting household living standards. In response to rising prices, many governments introduced fuel price subsidy to protect the most vulnerable populations. The literature is almost unani...

2024-10-12 62 792.14KB 21页
世界银行：生成型人工智能：增长的催化剂还是过早去专业化的先兆？（英文版）

This paper presents a multi-sector growth model to elucidate the general equilibrium effects of generative artificial intelligence on economic growth, structural transformation, and international production specialization. Using parameters from the l...

2024-10-12 88 2.93MB 62页
世界银行：失业发展（英文版）

Analyses of GDP per capita differences across countries focus almost exclusively on differences in productivity. This paper shows that there are also large differences in medium-run dynamics in the employment-to-population ratio. The paper finds a ge...

2024-10-12 107 932.97KB 39页
世界银行：实时指标追踪新冠肺炎危机期间发展中国家家庭福利变化的情况如何？（英文版）

This paper investigates the extent to which real-time indicators derived from internet search, cell phones, and satellites predict changes in household socioeconomic indicators across approximately 300 administrative level-1 regions in 20 countries d...

2024-10-12 95 2.49MB 46页

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