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国际货币基金组织：欧元区可调利率抵押贷款的货币政策传导（英文版）

This paper studies the role of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) in monetary policy transmission within the Euro Area. Conventional wisdom holds that ARMs are relevant per se. This study finds that the presence of liquidity-constrained households stro...

2025-12-15 3 5.61MB 88页
国际货币基金组织：撒哈拉以南非洲的作物生产力：研究与开发的作用（英文版）

This paper provides new cross-country evidence that greater investment in agricultural R&Dsignificantly mitigates the adverse effects of climate variability on crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa. Despitethis critical role, only a handful of count...

2025-12-15 2 816.03KB 28页
国际货币基金组织：水资源宏观临界性（英文版）

This paper examines the macro-criticality of water resources in the context of climate change. It summarizes the past and future trends of water scarcity and droughts and proposes a framework to analyze the macro-criticality and role of public sector...

2025-12-15 2 1.52MB 57页
法国预测与国际信息中心：极右翼对主流政治的影响：来自国民阵线的证据（英文版）

How does the electoral success of a far-right political force shape the strategies and policy platforms of mainstream candidates? We answer this question by exploiting the political shock of the creation of the Front National, an antiimmigration part...

2025-12-12 4 20.89MB 116页
法国预测与国际信息中心：能源和财政冲击：重新评估产业竞争力（英文版）

Energy price shocks never occur in isolation: their impact is shaped by the broader macroeconomic context, in particular by governments' fiscal stance. This paper investigates how two key forces-energy price shocks and demand stimuli induced by f...

2025-12-12 4 4.13MB 55页
国际货币基金组织：传统计量经济学模型与机器学习算法的GDP预测性能：模拟和案例研究（英文版）

Are Machine Learning (ML) algorithms superior to traditional econometric models for GDP nowcasting in a time series setting? Based on our evaluation of all models from both classes ever used in nowcasting across simulation and six country cases, trad...

2025-12-12 4 5.14MB 48页
国际货币基金组织：贷款定价中的碳风险：承诺渠道与实际影响（英文版）

We study how carbon risk affects the pricing of U.S. corporate loans and how firms’ and lenders’ commitments influence both loan terms and business decisions. Combining syndicated loan data with firm-level carbon emissions, we document a carbon risk ...

2025-12-12 5 1.19MB 45页
国际货币基金组织：对移动货币征税：理论与证据（英文版）

Mobile money has become a central digital alternative to traditional banking in developing countries, yet several African governments have introduced taxes on mobile money transactions. We develop a model that characterizes how such taxes affect paym...

2025-12-12 6 4.48MB 55页
国际货币基金组织：国际货币基金组织出版物中的粮食和农业部门：文本挖掘分析（英文版）

This paper presents a text-mining analysis of discussions of food and agriculture issues in publications of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) from 1946 to mid-2025, with deeper analysis on subsets of this period for selected publication typ...

2025-12-12 5 1.58MB 30页
加拿大国际治理创新中心CIGI：数字货币和支付基础设施（英文版）

Digital technologies are challenging the traditional role of commercial banks as gatekeepers of payment systems. Benjamin Franklin, one of the founding fathers of the United States, may have had some insight into this changing role. His four question...

2025-12-12 3 768.37KB 16页
印度国际经济关系研究理事会（ICRIER）：揭示印度电子废物供应链：对涉及的关键代理进行综合分析和映射（英文版）

India’s rapid technological growth has significantly increased electronic consumption, resulting in a surge in electronic waste (e-waste) generation. This working paper examines the complexities of India’s e-waste supply chain, focusing on key agents...

2025-12-12 4 1.77MB 29页
加拿大国际治理创新中心CIGI：设计中的信任？军事应用中的人工智能（英文版）

Military adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) is outpacing governance, compressing decision time and heightening escalation risk. In response, “trust” must be operationalized as assured reliance, clear claims, evidence and accountability — at sys...

2025-12-12 4 193.2KB 10页
加拿大国际治理创新中心CIGI：人工智能与贸易：WTO的深思熟虑但不完整的评估（英文版）

When the World Trade Organization (WTO) decided in 2024 to produce a report on the trade implications of artificial intelligence (AI), it set out to answer two key questions: How can the WTO help ensure that the benefits of AI are widespread? And, ho...

2025-12-12 3 816.3KB 24页
100万亿Token实证AI研究：从交互到推理的范式转移（英文版）

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2025-12-12 2 10.71MB 36页
国际清算银行：生成性经济建模（英文版）

We introduce a novel approach for solving quantitative economic models: generative economic modeling. Our method combines neural networks with conventional solution techniques. Specifically, we train neural networks on simplified versions of the econ...

2025-12-11 3 2.83MB 66页
国际清算银行：碳密集型能源价格变化的宏观经济效应：模型比较（英文版）

We present a novel model comparison to examine the challenges that changes in carbon-intensive energy prices pose for monetary policy. Our study focuses on the macroeconomic effects and monetary policy implications of both temporary and permanent car...

2025-12-11 3 3.73MB 49页
从4个非洲电力可及国际倡议的文本看其政策逻辑与设计框

本文系统梳理4个非洲电力可及国际倡议的文本，以期为其他对非发展项目设计电力可及目标、开展行动部署和动员有效资金提供有益借鉴。 ▪ 分析发现，4个案例倡议都提出电力装机容量、电力接入点数量、惠及人口数量、人均年用电量等量化目标。按照时间顺序，各倡议的人均年用电量目标从146千瓦时提高到730千瓦时，已经高于世界银行电力可及5级标准人均每年用电598.6千瓦时的水平，但尚未达到全球人均年用电量平均水平的一半。 ▪ 本文所选4个案例倡议目标中没有环境、公平等要素，但在目标落实的监督考核体...

2025-12-10 4 1.39MB 20页
物流领域机器人与自动化投资回报率（英文版）

The global logistics industry is undergoing a transformative shift, propelled by the rapidintegration of robotics and automation technologies. These innovations promise enhancedoperational efficiency, reduced labor costs, improved accuracy, and faste...

2025-12-09 5 236.9KB 8页
加拿大国际治理创新中心CIGI：公众对人工智能的担忧在翻译中被忽视（英文版）

Artificial intelligence (AI) is playing an increasingly important role in people’s lives, which has led to growing calls for AI regulation. Although the public has strong opinions on AI, getting policy makers to listen often leads to citizens’ concer...

2025-12-08 3 2.27MB 24页
熊春琳：农村产业融合对农业碳排放的影响研究-基于双重机器学习的因果推断

农村产业融合是实现农业增效农民增收的重要途径，其经济效益已获广泛认可，但其生态效益，尤其是对农业碳排放的影响尚存争议。科学揭示农村产业融合的碳排放效应，对于推动农业低碳高质发展和服务国家“双碳”战略具有重要现实意义。[方法]文章基于 2010-2022年中国30个省份的面板数据，从生产函数曲线视角切入，结合帕累托改进与索洛技术创新理论，构建农村产业融合通过“资源配置一效率提升”驱动农业碳减排的理论路径，并采用双重机器学习模型进行实证检验。[结果]研究发现:农村产业融合对农业碳排放具有显著的抑制作...

2025-12-08 3 1.26MB 19页

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