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欧洲央行：抵押贷款利率与浮动利率抵押贷款违约（英文版）

Using a granular database of variable rate euro area loans and analysing their defaults between 2014 and 2019, we show that the effect of interest rate changes on mortgage defaults is highly non-linear. First, we find that the risk associated with hi...

2025-09-29 27 6.42MB 73页
欧洲央行：压力时期货币政策对银行和非银行的影响（英文版）

This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on banks and nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs), with particular attention to the role of financial stress. We use high-frequency identified monetary policy shocks and state-dependent local p...

2025-09-29 24 5.58MB 61页
欧洲央行：央行货币作为可替代性的催化剂：以稳定币为例（英文版）

To ensure that means of payments are readily interchangeable at face value – i.e. fungible – for retail payments, three elements are required: (1) seƩlement finality; (2) interoperability; and (3) seamless converƟbility of the means of payment into t...

2025-09-29 26 1.42MB 35页
国际货币基金组织：人口老龄化和人工智能对日本劳动力市场的影响：挑战与机遇（英文版）

This paper explores the complex roles of demographic changes and technological innovation in shaping Japan's labor market. We use regression analysis to assess the impact of population aging on labor productivity and shortages. Our findings indic...

2025-09-25 32 2.82MB 20页
世界银行：大西洋飓风对商业活动的影响（英文版）

This paper quantifies the short-run economic impact of 21 Atlantic hurricanes on U.S. local business activity from 2017 to 2024 using anonymized Mastercard transaction data aggregated by ZIP code. On average, hurricanes reduce merchant sales by 12.4 ...

2025-09-25 286 1.28MB 37页
国际货币基金组织：巴拿马地区收入差距（英文版）

Panama exhibits high income inequality largely driven by disparities between regions rather than within them. The Panama Canal corridor, including Panama City and Colón, benefits from concentrated economic activities with high labor productivity and ...

2025-09-25 32 2.17MB 14页
国际货币基金组织：巴拿马国有企业（英文版）

Panama has a significant and diverse state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector, comprising 16 non-financial enterprises, 5 financial institutions, and the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). The ACP operates under a specific legal and budgetary framework that en...

2025-09-25 29 1.3MB 25页
国际货币基金组织：编制年度借款计划（英文版）

An Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP) guides the short-term execution of a debt management strategy, which typically spans 3–5 years. Emerging market and low-income countries have improved their ability to develop debt management strategy (DMS), they face o...

2025-09-25 29 758.98KB 37页
国际货币基金组织：金融市场代币化的最优策略（英文版）

: Competing broker initiatives to “tokenize” financial assets—i.e., represent them on programmable platforms—promise efficiency gains but raise concerns about market fragmentation. Policymakers in several countries are considering supporting such p...

2025-09-25 33 1.8MB 58页
英国女性对手游的态度分析（英文版）

This study investigates the barriers to playing video games that women face. Despite gaming being a traditionally male dominated pastime, 51% of women now game in some capacity compared to 53% of men. However, women are still less likely to play som...

2025-09-25 37 3.15MB 16页
韩国央行：美元主导地位与美国金融危机的国际溢出效应（英文版）

This paper investigates how the global dominance of the US dollar amplifies thecross-border transmission offinancial shocks originating in the United States. I de-velop a small open economy DSGE model that embeds the dollar's central role ininter...

2025-09-24 25 1.4MB 70页
Educatjon：在人工智能时代促进和保护教师能动性

教育挑战和机遇。人工智能越来越被视为有潜力支持教学实践、增强学生学习，并普遍提高教学、专业学习和行政任务的效率。与此同时，教育中的人工智能可能会削弱人的能动性，允许侵犯隐私和数据安全，并加剧现有的系统性不平等和教育排斥。因此，人工智能既带来了变革机遇，也带来了深刻责任，以确保其设计、开发和应用能够增强而非削弱教育所必需的独特人类能力。因此，我们正处在一个关键节点，需要所有相关方进行集体反思并采取果断行动，塑造一个确保人工智能技术合乎伦理、包容和公平应用的教育未来。...

2025-09-24 45 966.35KB 35页
Weizenbaum Institute：AI实施过程中数据工作的动态报告（英文版）

The discourse on automation and artificial intelligence (AI) highlights the critical yet underexplored role of data work. While previous studies have focused on data work in the production of AI systems, this article investigates its significance in ...

2025-09-23 21 588.5KB 28页
欧洲央行：财政声明的信号效应（英文版）

Announcing a large fiscal stimulus may signal the government’s pessimism about the severity of a recession to the private sector, impairing the stabilizing effects of the policy. Using a theoretical model, we show that these signaling effects occur w...

2025-09-23 24 2.77MB 58页
欧洲央行：劳动力市场变化对家庭抵押贷款的异质性影响（英文版）

This paper examines how structural change in labor markets affects householdcredit outcomes. Using a Shift-Share instrumental variable approach, we find thatoccupational shifts negatively infuence mortgage holding for houscholds facing fa.vorable job...

2025-09-23 21 1.18MB 17页
欧洲央行：通货膨胀对金融稳定的因果效应，历史证据（英文版）

In contrast to the conventional Fisherian view that inflation reduces real debt positions, we show that significant increases in inflation are strongly associated with financial crises. In the spirit of Jord`a et al. (2020), countries with free and f...

2025-09-23 29 1.64MB 43页
未来能源研究所：对能源部气候工作组题为“气候变化、经济和社会碳成本”的报告第11章的评论对温室气体排放对美国气候影响的关键性评估

对于那些指定温度对GDP增长影响随时间累积的模型，不确定性最大；在表现最佳的模型中，同时考虑抽样和模型不确定性的95%置信区间从84%的GDP损失到359 %的收益不等。GDP水平效应的模型产生了分布范围更窄的GDP影响，集中在1-3% 的损失，这与主要综合评估模型的损害函数一致。此外，包含滞后温度效应的模型表明对GDP水平的影响，而非GDP增长。我们识别出温度对贫穷国家GDP和农业生产存在统计上显著的边际效应，但对富裕国家的GDP、非农业生产或GDP增长则没有。...

2025-09-23 26 1.05MB 16页
加拿大国际治理创新中心CIGI：从和平红利到国防红利：双重用途、量子和北约目标（英文版）

In an age of geopolitical and technological disruption, defence spending is increasingly viewed not merely as a security imperative but also as a strategic lever for industrial renewal and longer-term economic resilience. The North Atlantic Treaty Or...

2025-09-22 24 885.69KB 30页
国际货币基金组织：波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的房地产市场（英文版）

This Selected Issues Paper (SIP) analyzes recent developments in the real estate market in Bosnia and Herzegovina, focusing on housing price dynamics, financial stability implications, and policy responses. Housing prices in Bosnia and Herzegovina ...

2025-09-22 19 1.85MB 16页
国际货币基金组织：欧盟碳边界调整机制的宏观经济暴露：以中东和中亚为例（英文版）

Taking the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as given, our paper evaluates the impact of this terms-of-trade shock on the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA). Using a novel methodology and fresh data applied to the lates...

2025-09-22 25 816.18KB 40页

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