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国际货币基金组织：ECCU面临的财产保险挑战（英文版）

Property insurance affordability presents a growing challenge for the ECCU. With a high reliance on global reinsurance to manage risks in high-exposure products like property, the recent tightening of global reinsurance market conditions has largely...

2025-06-06 28 1.16MB 11页
国际货币基金组织：利率敏感性情景指导货币政策（英文版）

This paper examines the challenges of formulating monetary policy in the face of heightened uncertainty. We develop a framework to assess the optimal monetary policy path under uncertainty, focusing on four key dimensions: the expectation formation p...

2025-06-06 21 1.04MB 31页
国际货币基金组织：情景综合与宏观经济风险（英文版）

We develop methodology to bridge scenario analysis and risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. The methodology, rooted in Bayesian analysis, addresses the fundamental challenge of reconciling judgmental narrative a...

2025-06-06 28 1.85MB 30页
国际货币基金组织：数字化：代际职业流动的催化剂？（英文版）

This paper analyzes the link between digitalization and intergenerational occupational mobility in Africa. We use a probit model estimated on a large sample of 28 million individuals aged 14 and higher and co-residing with at least one individual fro...

2025-06-06 24 557.08KB 24页
国际货币基金组织：为未来提供动力：ECCU的能源转型战略（英文版）

Reducing energy dependence in the ECCU entails improving energy efficiency and shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy. This energy transition will affect the transmission of and vulnerability to shocks (e.g., from natural disasters or commodi...

2025-06-06 24 1.52MB 13页
美联储：国债期货市场的市场流动性（英文版）

We study the behavior of liquidity providers and liquidity consumers in the 10-year U.S. Treasury futures market during the height of the COVID-19 shock in March 2020, a period of market turmoil when demand for liquidity was high. In March 2020, PTFs...

2025-06-05 16 2.81MB 28页
美联储：公司债务到期与商业周期波动（英文版）

Long-term debt is the main source of firm-financing in the U.S. We show that accounting for debt maturity is crucial for understanding business cycle dynamics. We develop a macroeconomic model with defaultable long-term debt and equity adjustment cos...

2025-06-05 14 2.77MB 55页
美联储：回顾“透视”（英文版）

This paper examines the place that a “look-through” approach to price shocks has acquired in inflation-targeting frameworks. The “look-through” approach reflects the fact that, in the event of a shock that is likely (on impact) to put a sizable share...

2025-06-05 15 383.14KB 32页
世界银行：从父权制到政策：规范、投票和性别平等法（英文版）

Legal institutions play an important role in shaping gender equality in economic domains, from inheritance to labor markets. But where do gender equal laws come from? Using cross-country data on social norms and legal equality, this paper investigate...

2025-06-05 27 812.93KB 64页
世界银行：对全球风险的预测敏感性-BVAR分析（英文版）

Developing countries face uncertainties driven by global macroeconomic variables over which they have little to no control. Key exogenous factors faced by most developing countries include interest rates in high-income countries, commodity prices...

2025-06-05 30 87.48MB 135页
世界银行：超越总量：长期增长建模的特定行业框架（英文版）

This paper develops a bottom-up, sector-specific approach to modeling potential output that overcomes limitations of traditional top-down estimates for long-term projections and policy analysis. The model disaggregates total-factor productivity (TFP)...

2025-05-30 34 2.01MB 42页
世界银行：从黑板到聊天机器人：评估生成性人工智能对尼日利亚学习成果的影响（英文版）

This study evaluates the impact of a program leveraging large language models for virtual tutoring in secondary education in Nigeria. Using a randomized controlled trial, the program deployed Microsoft Copilot (powered by GPT-4) to support first-year...

2025-05-30 29 26.9MB 51页
国际货币基金组织：从银行到非银行：宏观审慎和货币政策对企业贷款的影响（英文版）

The growing role of nonbanks in corporate credit intermediation raises important but underexplored questions about how both monetary policy (MP) and macroprudential policies (MaPP) affect lending and the real economy. Using syndicated loan data, we e...

2025-05-29 20 1.49MB 59页
国际货币基金组织：供应链多样化和弹性（英文版）

This paper develops a new multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze extent to which the diversification of sources of imports mitigates the impact of adverse trade shocks. The model incorporates trade network rigiditie...

2025-05-29 21 2.42MB 60页
国际货币基金组织：国际地震对北马其顿和西巴尔干地区的影响：北马其顿共和国（英文版）

The Western Balkan economies have faced numerous external shocks in recent years, while simultaneously becoming more integrated with the European Union. This paper employs a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to estimate the spillovers of real...

2025-05-29 9 2.24MB 20页
国际货币基金组织：支持的计划中的宏观金融政策和脆弱性（英文版）

We construct a unique dataset by collecting macro-financial commitments data using textual analysis of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFPs), a document outlining, inter-alia, policy commitments by member countries, in the context...

2025-05-29 15 4MB 60页
国际货币基金组织：为扩大撒哈拉以南非洲的气候融资奠定基础（英文版）

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces growing climate vulnerability, with rising temperatures and extreme weather threatening agriculture, food security, and economic growth. These challenges worsen poverty, fiscal constraints, and limited human capital inv...

2025-05-29 7 1.57MB 48页
国际货币基金组织：凶杀案对劳动力市场的影响：来自墨西哥的证据（英文版）

This paper explores how fluctuations in crime rates influence labor market outcomes in Mexico. Using detailed survey data and an individual-fixed effect estimation, the analysis reveals distinct gender dynamics in response to rising homicide rates. M...

2025-05-29 15 1MB 23页
国际货币基金组织：基于QPM的发展中国家天气冲击与货币政策分析（英文版）

Weather-related shocks are of a supply-side nature and therefore present significant challenges for monetary policy. Using a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) framework, this paper provides an overview of weather-relevant analytical exercises that hel...

2025-05-29 10 1.02MB 36页
国际货币基金组织：旅游业对小发展中国家增长的长期和短期影响（英文版）

We explore the relationship of recessions and tourism cycles on the economic performance of tourism-dependent Small Developing States (SDS). Using local projections regressions, we examine how these cycles affect potential output growth and its drive...

2025-05-29 7 2.64MB 63页

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