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世界银行：中东和北非干旱对劳动力市场的影响（英文版）

This paper examines the impact of negative precipitation shocks (droughts) on labor markets in the Middle East and North Africa region. Using Labor Force Survey data across five countries over approximately 25 years and matched with fifth generation ...

2025-08-29 54 1.23MB 33页
世界银行：资源丰富经济体的财政乘数：来自海湾国家的证据（英文版）

This paper utilizes the unique dynamics of fiscal budgeting in countries with a large hydro-carbon sector to estimate fiscal multipliers. The main identifying assumption rests on the idea that exogenously identified global hydrocarbon demand shocks c...

2025-08-29 50 446.94KB 35页
DGP：一种用于图增强大语言模型欺诈检测的双粒度提示框架（英文版）

Real-world fraud detection applications benefits from graph learning techniques that jointly exploit node features—often rich in textual data—and graph structural information. Recently, Graph-Enhanced LLMs emerge as a promising graph learning approac...

2025-08-29 19 531.35KB 9页
美联储：流行病和战争通货膨胀：国际经验的教训（英文版）

This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses. The infl...

2025-08-29 25 1.44MB 38页
美联储：美联储2019-20年货币政策框架审查的起源、结构和结果（英文版）

In this paper, we describe the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 review of its monetary policy framework. First, we discuss the historical background of and motivation for the review. We then summarize the structure of the 2019–20 review, which included Fed ...

2025-08-29 25 717.32KB 36页
美联储：评估最大就业率（英文版）

We suggest a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor market relative to maximum employment. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of the cyclical position of the labor market, as it is time-tested, is highly correlat...

2025-08-29 23 832.88KB 28页
美联储：通货膨胀动态对货币政策策略的影响（英文版）

This paper considers robust monetary policy strategies both in situations of low demand and low inflation and when economic developments pose a tradeoff between inflation and output stabilization. We proceed in two parts. First, our quantitative anal...

2025-08-29 24 1.78MB 44页
美联储：实际汇率和净贸易动态：金融和贸易冲击（英文版）

This paper studies the drivers of the US real exchange rate (RER), with a particular focus on its comovement with net trade (NT) flows. We consider the entire spectrum of frequencies, as the low-frequency variation accounts for 62 and 64 percent of t...

2025-08-29 24 1.27MB 88页
美联储：疫情以来的通货膨胀：教训和挑战（英文版）

This paper reviews the drivers of the post-pandemic U.S. inflation surge and subsequent decline, including the behavior and role of inflation expectations. The sharp rise in inflation reflected severe imbalances between supply and demand stemming fro...

2025-08-29 32 1.88MB 34页
Rand兰德：联邦预算映射工具（英文版）

To understand the implications of federal spending on trends in economic inequality, it is necessary to understand how federal spending is distributed across the U.S. population. Although much research studies individual programs targeting low-income...

2025-08-29 19 664.19KB 44页
美联储：2019年以来美联储工作人员通胀预测错误回顾（英文版）

This paper examines the Board staff’s inflation forecast misses over the years following the COVID-19 outbreak, focusing on a timeline of what staff members knew when and lessons learned along the way. The staff significantly underestimated both the ...

2025-08-29 23 2.4MB 31页
美联储：国外央行货币政策框架综述：方法、问题和结果（英文版）

We examine the experience of conducting reviews of monetary policy frameworks in the major advanced foreign economies since the Federal Open Market Committee's 2019–20 review. We find that periodic reviews are becoming the norm and have often bee...

2025-08-29 28 600.94KB 18页
美联储：货币政策、不确定性与沟通（英文版）

We review the design and communication of monetary policy strategies that take into account risks and uncertainty. A key element in a robust monetary strategy is the concept of risk management, which is the weighing of key risks when setting policy. ...

2025-08-29 26 784.57KB 23页
美联储：货币政策中的不确定性和风险（英文版）

This paper discusses the measurement, assessment, and communication of risks and uncertainty that are relevant for monetary policy. It provides a taxonomy of policy-relevant uncertainty related to the state and the structure of the economy, and the f...

2025-08-29 26 1.12MB 28页
美联储：劳动力市场动态、货币政策权衡和追求最大就业的短缺方法（英文版）

This paper reviews recent academic studies to assess the implications of adopting a shortfalls, rather than a deviations, approach to pursuing maximum employment. Model-based simulations from these studies suggest three main findings. First, shortfal...

2025-08-29 32 626.78KB 21页
世界银行：不平等的负担，不平等的福利：从性别角度分析秘鲁的财政制度（英文版）

This paper applies a gender lens to the distributional analysis of Peru’s fiscal system using the Commitment to Equity methodology with data from the 2019 Encuesta Nacional de Hogares. The paper examines how taxes and transfers affect households with...

2025-08-29 159 1.12MB 52页
世界银行：利用光学遥感和有限训练数据绘制斯里兰卡田间水稻面积和产量图（英文版）

Rice is a staple crop for over half the world’s population, and accurate, timely information on its planted area and production is crucial for food security and agricultural policy, particularly in developing nations like Sri Lanka. However, reliable...

2025-08-29 270 3.27MB 29页
世界银行：印尼煤炭转型脆弱性的空间分析（英文版）

This paper provides a spatial analysis of coal transition vulnerability in Indonesia. It uses a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative data on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to coal transition, summarized in a Coal Transition...

2025-08-29 265 3.66MB 40页
世界银行：压力测试调查到调查推断：了解贫困预测何时可能失败（英文版）

Accurate and timely poverty measurement is central to development policy, yet the availability of up-to-date high-quality household survey data remains limited—particularly in countries where poverty is most concentrated. Survey-to-survey imputation ...

2025-08-29 42 965.42KB 46页
世界银行：在校期间工作的持久影响：长期随访（英文版）

This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the long-term effects of work-study programs, leveraging a randomized lottery design from a national program in Uruguay. Participation leads to a persistent 11 percent increase in formal labor ea...

2025-08-29 260 594KB 44页

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