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美联储：关于“非线性世界中的动态因果效应：好的、坏的与丑陋的”的讨论（英文版）

This comment discusses Kolesár and Plagbord-Møller (2025) finding that the standard linear local projection (LP) estimator recovers the average marginal effect (AME) even in nonlinear settings. We apply and discuss a subset their results using a simp...

2025-08-13 24 500.77KB 12页
美联储：间接信贷供给：银行向私人信贷发放贷款如何影响货币政策传导（英文版）

This paper examines how banks’ financing of nonbank lenders affects monetary policy transmission. Using supervisory bank loan-level data and deal-level private credit data, we document an intermediation chain: Banks lend to Business Development Compa...

2025-08-13 30 1.21MB 82页
美联储：金融稳定理论遭遇现实（英文版）

A large literature at the intersection of economics and finance offers prescriptions for regulating banks to increase financial stability. This literature abstracts from the discretion that accounting standards give banks over financial reporting, cr...

2025-08-13 26 600.53KB 65页
美联储：美国的大型企业与新技术发展轨迹（英文版）

We provide evidence that mega firms have played an increasingly important role in shaping new technological trajectories in recent years. While the share of novel patents—defined as patents introducing new combinations of technological components— pr...

2025-08-13 24 2.33MB 55页
美联储：统一的人口与劳动力统计数据（英文版）

The official labor force statistics often exhibit discontinuities in January, when updated population estimates are incorporated into the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the current year but are not revised backward through history. We construct ...

2025-08-13 22 791.56KB 69页
美联储：线性与非线性计量经济学模型与机器学习模型的对比：已实现波动率预测（英文版）

This paper fills an important gap in the volatility forecasting literature by comparing a broad suite of machine learning (ML) methods with both linear and nonlinear econometric models using high-frequency realized volatility (RV) data for the S&...

2025-08-13 30 862.88KB 68页
王成山：园区型综合能源系统多时间尺度模型预测优化调度

在冷/热/电综合能源系统中，协调多种设备使其优化运行，经济可靠地满足系统用能需求十分重要，制定合理有效的调度策略是实现这一目标的关键。该文针对一个实际园区综合能源系统冬季运行优化调度问题进行研究。在对设备进行详细建模基础上，建立包含滚动优化环节和动态调整环节的两阶段多时间尺度模型预测控制调度策略：滚动优化阶段以系统运行费用和机组启停罚金最小为目标，结合分时电价并考虑多系统互补运行，通过多步滚动求解制定系统大时间尺度调度计划；动态调整阶段以滚动优化阶段调控计划为基准，对设备的运行状...

2025-08-13 31 1.31MB 14页
葛磊蛟：面向零碳园区的综合能源系统优化运行技术综述

双碳背景下，零碳园区级综合能源系统(integrated energy system，IES)成为我国节能降碳、提质增效政策的重点。然而，园区级综合能源系统具有源-网-荷-储一体化、多能互补、供需方动态博弈等特点，其优化运行技术面临强不确定性和耦合机理不明等诸多挑战。为此，对零碳园区级 IES 优化运行的研究现状、关键技术与未来发展趋势等方面进行综述至关重要。该文首先聚焦于多类型能源耦合能效提升，系统阐述了零碳园区级综合能源系统架构；进一步，从零碳园区实施路径入手，对零碳园区级综合能...

2025-08-13 30 2.6MB 15页
“Be My Cheese”多语言大语言模型翻译中文化细微差别的评估

本试点研究旨在探索最先进的多语言人工智能(AD模型在将习语、双关语等比喻性语言从英语翻译成全球多种语言时所具备的本地化能力。现有大语言模型(LLM)翻译研究及行业基准测试注重语法准确性和标记级正确性，而本研究在此基础上进一步拓展，聚焦文化适宜性和整体本地化质量，而后者是市场营销、电子商务等真实应用场景中的关键因素。为探究此类挑战，本项目评估了20种语言的24种地区方言中，由LLM生成的87份电子商务营销邮件翻译样本。精通各目标语言的人类评审员从与原文语气、含义的忠实度以及对目标受众的适配度等方面...

2025-08-12 27 560.58KB 15页
加拿大国际治理创新中心CIGI：艰难的平衡：隐私、国家安全和数据自由流动（英文版）

Following decades of US government-led initiatives to open data and to encourage data flows, it came as a shock to many US trade partners when the Biden administration announced in October 2023 that it would withdraw its support for proposals to enco...

2025-08-11 27 513.09KB 30页
协作护理：医院医学中社区合作伙伴关系的重要性（英文版）

In the evolving landscape of healthcare, hospital medicine is expanding beyond traditional boundaries to address social drivers of health (SDOHs), which necessitates increased community partnership and engagement. At Stanford Medicine, the Division o...

2025-08-11 38 653.08KB 5页
小企业主的政治（英文版）

Small business owners play a central role in all advanced economies. Nonetheless, they are an understudied occupational group politically, particularly compared to groups that represent smaller portions of the population (e.g., union members, manufac...

2025-08-11 24 471.82KB 25页
理解老年人口中的债务（英文版）

We explore debt and debt management among older Americans (ages 51–61 years) using the 2018 National Financial Capability Study. Though these individuals should have been at the peak of their retirement savings, we show that many were heavily indebte...

2025-08-11 23 333.13KB 18页
理解价值观确认对尼泊尔聋生的影响：来自随机对照试验的证据（英文版）

In this paper, we present two studies from the frst randomized controlled trial on the impact of a values afrmation intervention on academic performance and psychological well-being in school for deaf students in secondary deaf schools in Nepal. In S...

2025-08-11 33 1.43MB 45页
人工智能2027（英文版）

We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution. The CEOs of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic have all predicted that AGI will arrive within the next 5 years. Sam Al...

2025-08-11 43 8.45MB 71页
银行的Q理论（英文版）

Bank capital requirements are based on book values, which are slow to reflect losses. In this article, we develop a dynamic model of banks to study the interaction of regulation and delayed accounting. Our model explains four stylized facts: book and...

2025-08-11 36 1.86MB 38页
乳腺癌统计数据（英文版）

This is the American Cancer Society's biennial update of statistics on breast cancer among women based on high‐quality incidence and mortality data from the National Cancer Institute and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Breast canc...

2025-08-08 43 718.79KB 19页
国际货币基金组织：加强社会保护和人力资本以促进包容性增长：几内亚比绍（英文版）

Guinea-Bissau’s social sectors face persistent challenges despite the progress made over the past few years. This paper reviews existing social protection programs in the country, assesses the efficiency and adequacy of public spending, and formulate...

2025-08-07 34 1.07MB 20页
欧洲央行：气候变化、企业和总生产率（英文版）

This paper uses a general equilibrium framework to examine the effects of temperature on firm-level demand, productivity, and input allocation efficiency, deriving an aggregate damage function for climate change. Using data from Italian firms and det...

2025-08-07 33 2.29MB 77页
欧洲央行：手到口银行：存款流入和边际放贷倾向（英文版）

In modern macroeconomics, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income shocks is a central object of interest. This paper empirically explores a parallel concept in banking: the marginal propensity to lend out of unsolicited deposit in...

2025-08-07 44 15.24MB 45页

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