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世界银行：人工智能时代的劳动力需求：来自美国招聘数据的早期证据（英文版）

This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event...

2025-11-24 11 14.4MB 49页
智能体AI：探索多模态交互的边界（英文版）

Multi-modal AI systems will likely become a ubiquitous presence in our everyday lives. A promising approach to making these systems more interactive is to embody them as agents within physical and virtual environments. At present, systems leverage ex...

2025-11-24 4 44.15MB 80页
当AI开始讨好人类：大型语言模型“社会式谄媚”现象全解析（英文版）

LLMs are known to exhibit sycophancy: agreeing with and flattering users, even at the cost of correctness. Prior work measures sycophancy only as direct agreement with users’ explicitly stated beliefs that can be compared to a ground truth. This fail...

2025-11-24 6 812KB 34页
肖俊夫：“双碳”目标下再生资源利用的碳减排效应及作用机制研究

:再生资源利用的碳减排效应对推动形成适合中国国情的差异化减排路径和实现“双碳”目标具有重大意义。在此背景下,深入探讨和评估再生资源利用的碳减排效应及作用机制,是学界亟待厘清的重要课题。文章作者首先将再生资源对原生资源的替代利用看作是一种环境反污染活动,并构造社会效用函数,基于最优控制理论模型,推导再生资源利用对碳减排效应的影响机制。理论推导结果表明:再生资源利用碳减排效应是否存在取决于再生资源利用过程消耗资源的系数,当再生资源替代减少的碳排放大于再生资源回收利用过程中新消耗资源的...

2025-11-21 6 1.87MB 15页
国际货币基金组织：货币政策向家庭信贷的传导：来自乌干达信贷登记数据的证据（英文版）

This paper examines the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in developing countries using loan-level data from Uganda’s credit registry. We analyze more than 632,000 household loans issued by all commercial banks between 2017 and 2023, a pe...

2025-11-20 7 5.38MB 37页
国际货币基金组织：基于搜索的并购理论（英文版）

We develop a search-based theory of mergers and acquisitions with heterogeneous firms and endogenous search complementarities. We use this model to understand how merger incentives and the firm size distribution interact. In equilibrium, search costs...

2025-11-20 9 667.24KB 34页
国际货币基金组织：零售中央银行数字货币（rCBDCs）的财务完整性影响（英文版）

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2025-11-20 8 1.36MB 51页
世界银行：评估巴拉圭随机气候冲击的宏观经济影响（英文版）

This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of climate shocks in Paraguay, a small and open agricultural exporter that is highly exposed to droughts and floods. Utilizing a modified version of the World Bank’s Macro-Fiscal Model, the analysis ...

2025-11-20 11 2.91MB 42页
国际货币基金组织：评估CBDC对金融稳定的影响（英文版）

How could practitioners assess the domestic financial stability implications of retail CBDC? This chapter identifies six key transmission channels through which CBDC can affect financial stability—either negatively or positively. These channels opera...

2025-11-20 7 1.14MB 47页
国际货币基金组织：如何将气温上升的影响纳入长期GDP预测（英文版）

Climate change threatens macroeconomic and financial stability through rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and more frequent and intense extreme weather, in addition to other factors. To better assess vulnerabilities...

2025-11-20 7 2.41MB 34页
国际货币基金组织：稳定支出规则在促进宏观财政稳定中的作用：来自波兰的模拟证据（英文版）

: The paper investigates the properties of Poland’s Stabilizing Expenditure Rule (SER) in the context of economic governance reform in the EU. The analysis uses a granular macroeconometric model (Chmura et al., 2024) that incorporates heterogeneous f...

2025-11-20 6 1.7MB 38页
国际货币基金组织：选举的重要性：资本流动与政治周期（英文版）

This paper contributes to the relatively limited literature on the impact of political uncertainty on international capital flows to emerging market economies. We incorporate elections as a proxy for political uncertainty into a standard push-pull fr...

2025-11-20 6 1.82MB 47页
国际货币基金组织：央行数字货币对支付竞争的影响（英文版）

How would CBDC affect competition in the payments market? If introduced, CBDC can serve as a payment instrument, expanding end users’ transaction choices, and as a platform infrastructure, broadening intermediaries’ opportunities to provide and innov...

2025-11-20 6 862.83KB 44页
国际货币基金组织：中央银行数字货币的法律考量（英文版）

This Note aims to guide policymakers, including central banks, in assessing their legal frameworks to ensure a sound basis for the issuance of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). It is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as, ...

2025-11-20 8 923.34KB 47页
国际货币基金组织：主权债务危机中的贸易动态（英文版）

Sovereign debt restructurings can have large impacts on trade, with a significant compression of imports and a more ambiguous effect on exports. We show that the magnitude of that impact depends on whether restructurings preempt a default or take pla...

2025-11-20 9 2.2MB 33页
国际货币基金组织：最低工资与就业：部门和区域视角（英文版）

Most European countries have a single national minimum wage. An increase in minimum wage implies shocks of different magnitudes to sectors and subnational regions. Using sectoral and regional variations of minimum wage to average wage ratios in Europ...

2025-11-20 6 3.64MB 44页
法国预测与国际信息中心：劳动力市场力量、出口价格和传递（英文版）

Estimating the effects of goods and labor market power on firm pricing behavior is difficult since firm-level output and employment are jointly determined. We exploit the variation in the sets of destination countries across exporting firms, which en...

2025-11-20 6 934KB 50页
联合大学大学世界发展研究所：南非宏观审慎政策的治理（英文版）

South Africa’s experience developing a macroprudential role for its central bank could yield lessons for emerging market central banks. An explicit mandate to maintain and enhance financial stability accompanied a re-defined prudential and conduct re...

2025-11-20 7 1.46MB 81页
非洲经济研究中心：南非消费、房价、抵押贷款和非抵押贷款债务的新模式（英文版）

Aggregate consumption typically exceeds 60 per cent of GDP and should be pivotal in central bank policy models. Most use semi-structural macro-models, yet consumption is usually inadequately specified. We use a systems approach to estimate new equati...

2025-11-20 5 1.53MB 71页
国际清算银行：竞争性数字货币（英文版）

After decades of relative stability in the market structure of retail payments, new contenders are vying to challenge bank deposits as retail money. These contenders include the private tokens of digital platform operators, such as big techs; private...

2025-11-20 5 419.14KB 29页

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