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中国社会科学院世经政所（李隽旸）：世界银行发展知识的推广：基于权力视角的分析

为什么多边援助机构 ( 如世界银行) 提供的 “发展知识”能被受援国采纳并形成约束力? 发展知识如何经由国际组织向受援国推广? 既有发展援助研究探讨了发展知识的生产与接受，以及发展知识推广的具体形式，但仍缺乏能够展示国际组织与受援国间关系的整体性视角。基于国际关系研究中的权力类型学构建的关于发展知识如何推广的总体性理论框架表明，以世界银行为代表的多边援助机构通过 “强制” “社会化” “定位”与 “定义” 四种形式进行发展知识推广，这四种形式分别对应国际关系中的强制性权力、制度性权...

2026-06-17 2 298.24KB 22页
中国社会科学院世经政所（吴国鼎）：大股东持股比例对企业现金股利的影响-基于信贷融资中介效应的检验

企业的股权结构能够对现金股利产生影响。使用２００６—２０２３年中国沪深上市企业数据，运用中介效应检验方法，考察了大股东持股比例变化通过信贷融资对企业现金股利的影响。研究发现，大股东持股比例越高，企业发放的现金股利越多。考察信贷融资的中介效应，大股东持股比例越高，企业的信贷融资越多，进而对企业的现金股利产生更大影响。区分短期借款和长期借款，大股东持股比例越高，企业的短期借款越少，长期借款越多。信贷融资的中介效应存在异质性：企业的公司治理状况、大股东持股比例区间以及企业所属行...

2026-06-17 2 1.26MB 18页
银发经济背景下老年线上消费平台的供需错配问题与优化路径

在银发经济上升为国家战略的背景下，老年群体线上消费参与规模持续扩大，但平台供给与老年消费者需求之间的结构性错配问题日益凸显。本研究以老年线上消费平台为研究对象，基于信息不对称理论与前承理论，从信息、行为与技术三个维度系统分析供需错配的形成机制。研究发现:信息不对称引致逆向选择，抑制老年消费者的有效需求;损失厌恶与路径依赖在行为层面强化风险规避，降低消费意愿;数字技术门槛形成参与壁垒，限制潜在需求向实际消费转化。三类机制相互作用，共同制约老年群体的线上消费参与。在此基础上，本研究从优化平台信息供给...

2026-06-12 10 889.37KB 9页
国际清算银行：根据家庭的货币政策：看法、反应和渠道（英文版）

This paper studies how households perceive the transmission of monetary policy and how these perceptions affect their decisions. Using a large-scale survey of over 25,000 U.S. households combined with randomized information treatments, we measure how...

2026-06-10 10 1.47MB 61页
国际清算银行：控制数字风险：来自网络压力测试的证据（英文版）

Investment in cybersecurity in an interconnected banking system has public-good proper-ties: positive externalities can generate systemic underinvestment. Using confidential supervi-sory data from the European Central Bank, we first identify “laggard...

2026-06-10 12 1.52MB 53页
国际清算银行：利率水平如何影响信贷损失率？经验法则（英文版）

This paper investigates how changes in monetary policy interest rates affect credit loss rates in advanced and emerging market economies using annual data for 113 countries over the past three decades. Applying local projections, we find that a 1 per...

2026-06-10 13 4.1MB 52页
国际清算银行：使稳定币稳定（r）：监管能有所帮助吗？（英文版）

We model a stablecoin issuer that optimises capital, cash and bond holdings under persistent stablecoin flows. Absent regulation, the issuer holds little capital and favours interest-bearing but less-liquid bonds over cash. This exposes coin-holders ...

2026-06-10 8 2.42MB 55页
美联储：多花钱少买：2025年关税和美国家庭支出（英文版）

This paper estimates the effects of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on household spending using transaction-level data linked to tariff exposure and a tariff sentiment survey. Comparing high versus low tariff-exposed categories, we find 15 to 20 percent price ...

2026-06-10 12 1.12MB 86页
美联储：金融自由化、繁荣和崩溃（英文版）

Financial liberalization is often seen as a way to deepen credit markets and stimulate economic growth, but it may also fuel credit booms that end in crisis. We construct a new cross-country database of banking regulation policies covering 21 regulat...

2026-06-10 9 857.54KB 88页
美联储：双重惯性、泰勒规则与货币政策渐进主义（英文版）

In recent decades, an empirically estimated double-inertial rule fits the path of changes in the federal funds rate better than a standard inertial Taylor rule. Inertial Taylor rules aim to capture monetary policy gradualism via slow adjustments in t...

2026-06-10 7 428.32KB 23页
美联储：通胀感知在消费者通胀预期中的作用：来自欧元区的证据（英文版）

Using data on euro-area household inflation forecasts from the European Commission Consumer Survey, we show that households’ perceptions of recent price changes play a key role in the formation of their inflation expectations. Such a relationship rem...

2026-06-10 10 898.29KB 56页
美联储：完美安全的数字货币的脆弱性（英文版）

Digital money differs from previous forms of money in an important way: it unbundles trust. Instead of relying on a trustworthy institution to settle payments, it relies on decentralized verification, whose cost is priced separately through congestio...

2026-06-10 8 984.25KB 70页
美联储：慢速学习（英文版）

This paper provides an analytic characterization of the speed of convergence under learning to a rational expectations equilibrium (REE) for a large class of multivariate models. We show that learning is slower when people’s beliefs about model outco...

2026-06-10 6 973.2KB 75页
世界银行：缺少证据：全球学术数据使用情况追踪（英文版）

Data-driven research on a country is key to producing evidence-based public policies. Yet little is known about where data-driven research is lacking and how it could be expanded. This paper proposes a method for tracking academic data use by country...

2026-06-10 11 3.35MB 39页
国际劳工组织（ILO）：为职业安全与健康预防融资：六个案例的比较分析（英文版）

At its 349th Session, the ILO Governing Body endorsed the Global Strategy on Occupational Safety and Health (OSH), recognizing sustainable financing as a key condition for the development of effective, resilient and sustainable national OSH systems. ...

2026-06-09 5 1.79MB 57页
张天祥：温塘镇温泉康养旅游产品适老化设计研究

随着康养旅游需求的持续增长，温泉康养旅游已成为旅游产业转型升级的重要方向。河北省平山县温塘镇凭借独特的高温氡泉资源与多年温泉康养服务经验，具备发展温泉康养旅游的显著优势，但也面临产品结构单一、温泉设施与服务适老化不足等问题。本文建议以完善温泉及住宿设施适老化设计与无障碍设施配置，提升服务质量与康养专业水平等方式，提升温塘镇温泉康养旅游的竞争优势，助力其向老年友好型康养目的地转型升级...

2026-06-09 11 554.08KB 6页
美联储：1968年至2020年美联储的替代方案：数据、解释和评估（英文版）

We comprehensively document 1,265 Federal Reserve staff alternative scenarios presented to the Federal Open Market Committee in publicly released materials from 1968 to 2020. Scenarios grew in frequency and sophistication, typically spanning a range ...

2026-06-04 7 740.5KB 25页
美联储：美国共同基金行业的技能和效率（英文版）

We propose a new measure of mutual fund manager ability: “efficiency” is the ability to accrue the risk premium associated with a risk factor. The familiar abnormal return, or alpha, is shown to be the sum of two distinct measures of ability: “aggreg...

2026-06-04 7 1.58MB 79页
美联储：银行监管与非银行中介的兴起（英文版）

We study the rise of nonbank financial intermediation and its implications for systemic risk. We develop a structural network model of banks and nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) that decomposes intermediation into a capacity channel, driven by ...

2026-06-04 7 1.96MB 41页
美联储：注意力分配与信念扭曲（英文版）

Using microdata from the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we study how within-household reallocations of attention across news affect inflation expectation bias, measured relative to a real-time, machine-learning full-information benchmark. Shifting att...

2026-06-04 7 664.2KB 63页

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