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中国社会科学院世经政所：特朗普2.0对国际货币体系的影响及中国应对

当前国际货币体系面临广义“特里芬难题”难以克服、美国国内政策外溢效应显著增强、美元“武器化”趋势加剧三大结构性缺陷，这严重制约了其稳定性与可持续性。在特朗普 2. 0背景下，国际货币体系面临全球金融秩序重构、多边主义退潮、美元霸权数字化等方面的冲击。尤其值得关注的是，特朗普政府对加密货币的支持开辟了“新美元循环”，正在成为传统金融市场的 “数字美元流动性”补充。新变局之下，国际货币体系可能会朝着美元、欧元、人民币“三分天下”的态势发展，并与全球产业链供应链演进趋势相匹配的方向发展。未来人...

2025-12-03 12 1.38MB 9页
中国社会科学院世经政所：高质量充分就业的理论内涵与规模测算

促进高质量充分就业事关国计民生，是新时代新征程就业工作的新定位、新使命。高质量充分就业内涵包括实现充分就业和提升就业质量两个层面，前者依赖总需求，后者依赖政策保障。中国的劳动力市场将出现两个典型事实。一是伴随着 15 ～ 64 岁劳动年龄人口绝对数量的减少，中国未来充分就业规模将持续递减。本文测算发现，“十五五”时期中国充分就业规模为 7.166 亿。因此实际就业规模递减并不意味着非充分就业，还需结合未来充分就业规模进行判断。二是伴随着人力资本水平的提升，胜任高质量就业岗位的人口规模...

2025-12-03 12 2.28MB 11页
中国社会科学院世经政所：老龄化、延迟退休与中国长期资本流动

人口老龄化是中国面临的重大挑战。延迟退休作为应对人口老龄化的重要政策，将显著影响劳动供给、储蓄与投资，进而作用于长期资本流动。本文通过构建多国开放经济的世代交叠模型，并利用跨国数据对模型参数进行校准，探讨了延迟退休政策对中国长期资本流动的影响及其机制。研究发现，第一，延迟退休对资本净流出的影响呈现倒 U形，即随着法定退休年龄的提高，资本净流出及其占国内生产总值的比重先上升后下降。这是延迟退休对储蓄的正向收入效应和负向抑制效应的相对变化所致。第二，当退休时间延迟较短时，政策对资本流动的影...

2025-12-03 12 1.75MB 29页
高明：新型电力系统中的虚拟电厂研究综述

随着传统化石能源的日益枯竭，以风能、太阳能为主的新能源发电资源已成为构建新型电力系统的主要能源形式。风能、太阳能等分布式能源具有较强的随机性、波动性、间歇性特征，大规模并网对电网稳定运行带来诸多挑战。虚拟电厂（virtual power plant，VPP）凭借其较强聚合调节各类型资源的能力，参与电网运行调度，促进清洁能源消纳。文中首先梳理 VPP 的基本概念，综述国内外 VPP 研究现状，并总结国内能源发展现状及趋势；然后归纳 VPP 的控制方式及架构，将目前 VPP 模型划分为 4 类...

2025-12-03 13 723.16KB 12页
世界银行：镍、钢和汽车：印尼的出口禁令和国内增值

镍对于生产钢铁至关重要。印度尼西亚拥有世界最大的储备，于2014年禁止镍出口以促进工业化。本文研究了出口禁令对下游钢铁使用产业的影响。一个三部门模型表明，虽然出口禁令可能会提高国内附加值政策研究工作论文系列发布研究进展中的成果，以鼓励对发展问题的思想交流。该系列的一个目标是迅速发布研究成果，即使展示的论文不够完善。论文会载明作者姓名，并应相应引用。本文中表达的观点、解释和结论完全由作者本人负责。它们不一定代表世界重建与发展银行/世界银行及其附属组织的观点，也不代表世界银行的执行董事或...

2025-12-03 24 5.31MB 48页
TASC：抱负的时刻：通过投资确保繁荣（英文版）

The government’s investment plan, Building on Recovery: Infrastructure and Capital Investment, 2016-2021 (BoR), is extremely important but it is deeply disappointing in its lack of ambition. In the first year of the plan, 2016, Exchequer investment o...

2025-11-28 16 1.14MB 54页
TASC：原住民控制爱尔兰航空的论据（英文版）

IAG group, a UK multinational, is making a bid to take-over Aer Lingus by purchasing shares currently held by the Irish Government. In this think-piece, Paul Sweeney argues that instead of selling shares, Ireland should invest more in Aer Lingus, by ...

2025-11-28 16 495.66KB 11页
TASC：平等珍视一切-爱尔兰的经济不平等（英文版）

Nat O’Connor has a PhD in Political Science (Trinity College Dublin) and an MA in Political Science and Social Policy (University of Dundee). Nat has worked with TASC since July 2009. Before joining TASC, he led the research team in the Homeless Agen...

2025-11-28 17 2.75MB 144页
巴德学院利维经济研究所：货币来来去去，但就业始终扎根（英文版）

This paper explores a development strategy for peripheral economies by advocating for a paradigm shift from traditional economic models that rely on accumulating foreign reserves. It proposes the job guarantee policy, an automatic stabilizer based on...

2025-11-28 19 511.37KB 35页
货币来来去去，但就业总是扎根：重新思考外围地区的外部约束和货币主权（英文版）

This paper explores a development strategy for peripheral economies by advo cating for a paradigm shift from traditional economic models that rely on accumulating foreign reserves. It proposes the job guarantee (JG) policy, an automatic stabilizer ba...

2025-11-28 17 736.9KB 20页
法国预测与国际信息中心：部门联系和移民对出口绩效的影响（英文版）

This paper studies how immigrants in intermediate sectors affect downstream export performance. We develop a theoretical model in which a sector’s exports depend not only on its own immigrant workforce, but also on immigrant labor in input-supplying ...

2025-11-28 16 1.44MB 52页
法国预测与国际信息中心：利润转移的工具（英文版）

While multinational enterprises (MNEs) shift hundreds of billions in profits to low-tax jurisdictions annually, how they do remains disputed. Using firm-level data for France in 2018, we provide the first joint quantification of the three main profit...

2025-11-28 14 932.15KB 50页
黄巧龙：零碳园区建设：现状、经验借鉴与对策建议

建设零碳园区是我国实现“双碳”目标的关键路径。当前，我国零碳园区建设尚处于起步阶段，面临制度规则体系不完善、能源系统转型动力不足、产业低碳转型受阻、碳汇体系不健全等现实问题。国内外已涌现诸多零碳园区典型案例，其核心发展模式可总结为以强化制度建设为支撑、以加快能源低碳转型为抓手、以推动产业协同为途径、以完善碳汇体系为手段。基于上述经验，结合我国资源禀赋与产业特征，建议从有力有序精准施策、促进产业低碳协同发展、推进能源绿色低碳转型、加快构建碳汇体系、健全长效发展机制五方面推进零碳园区建设...

2025-11-28 16 5.44MB 8页
OpenAI：权重稀疏的变压器具有可解释的电路（英文版）

Finding human-understandable circuits in language models is a central goal of the field of mechanistic interpretability. We train models to have more understandable circuits by constraining most of their weights to be zeros, so that each neuron only ...

2025-11-27 14 3.84MB 31页
世界银行：应对COVID-19大流行危机的贸易政策（英文版）

This paper presents new high-frequency data on trade policy changes targeting medical and food products since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, documenting how countries used trade policy instruments in response to the health crisis on a we...

2025-11-27 27 1.9MB 26页
国际货币基金组织：新兴市场的韧性：好运还是好政策？（英文版）

Emerging markets have shown remarkable resilience during risk-off episodes in recent years. While favorable external conditions—good luck—contributed to this resilience, improvements inpolicy frameworks—good policies—played a critical role in bolster...

2025-11-27 48 1.63MB 47页
TASC：性别、治理与爱尔兰危机（英文版）

Applying a gender lens to Irish political, economic and banking governance means examining the degree to which gender inequality in governance was a strong contributory factor in causing the initial global and economic crisis. It also gives insight i...

2025-11-27 15 358.06KB 10页
TASC：在爱尔兰共和国财富税：实施选项（英文版）

This paper considers the advantages and disadvantages of introducing a net wealth tax in the Republic of Ireland. The implications for vertical and horizontal equity are discussed, as are the implications for economic efficiency, growth, savings and ...

2025-11-27 18 1.06MB 69页
TASC：弗格斯·奥费拉尔展望新的公民共和国（英文版）

The set of profound crises that the Irish state and society are undergoing have led many to search for a new public philosophy. Many are critical of the public thinking which led to the deep economic recession in Ireland and which has, indeed, endang...

2025-11-27 20 1.22MB 15页
TASC：在凯尔特虎之后：北欧对一个新爱尔兰的愿景？（英文版）

The first decade of the new millennium has seen a remarkable turnaround in Ireland. The ‘Celtic Tiger’, acclaimed as the poster-boy for neo-liberal economics around the world, bounding so effortlessly forward just a few years ago, was mortally wounde...

2025-11-27 17 675.67KB 18页

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