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政府研究所：改变方向-如何快速改革公务员系统（英文版）

The fast stream is the civil service’s flagship talent development programme. It has become a staple of the graduate recruitment market and is regularly rated as one of the top graduate employers in the country. It is now an essential pipeline for ge...

2025-09-04 0 1.8MB 56页
国际劳工组织（ILO）：在数字时代导航工人的数据权利（英文版）

Over recent decades, comprehensive data protection legislation has proliferated worldwide, with a majority of jurisdictions enacting robust statutory regimes. Despite this abundance of legal standards, persistent challenges remain regarding the effic...

2025-09-04 0 1023.26KB 67页
美联储：当尾部很重时：GARCH模型的方差目标、非高斯、准最大似然估计的好处（英文版）

In heavy-tailed cases, variance targeting the Student’s-t estimator proposed in Bollerslev (1987) for the linear GARCH model is shown to be robust to density misspecification, just like the popular Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE). The resul...

2025-09-04 0 1.6MB 79页
美联储：地缘政治风险与全球银行业（英文版）

How do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopolit...

2025-09-04 0 1.63MB 77页
美联储：期权定价的局部估计：利用市场状态信息改进预测（英文版）

We propose a novel estimation framework for option pricing models that incorporates local, state-dependent information to improve out-of-sample forecasting performance. Rather than modifying the underlying option pricing model, such as the Heston-Nan...

2025-09-04 0 1.81MB 53页
世界银行：疫情世界中的贸易促进组织（英文版）

A 2021–22 Survey of Trade Promotion Organisations (TPOs) conducted by the World Bank to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic affected their functioning uncovers significant heterogeneity in TPOs’ characteristics across countries, but also income leve...

2025-09-04 3 9.06MB 19页
国际清算银行：东亚的R*：商业周期、金融周期和溢出效应（英文版）

This paper provides new estimates of the neutral interest rate, or r*, with a frequency domain approach using quarterly data from China, Japan, Korea, and the US. Utilizing band spectrum regressions, we estimate two types of neutral rates, which hold...

2025-09-04 0 1.58MB 44页
国际清算银行：趋同需要什么？金融和资本的作用（英文版）

Basic macroeconomic models predict convergence: that poor countries will grow faster than, or catch up to, rich countries. The empirical evidence for these predictions has at times suggested unconditional or divergence. More recent data indicate conv...

2025-09-04 0 568.28KB 30页
欧洲央行：打开局部投影的黑匣子（英文版）

Local projections (LPs) are widely used in empirical macroeconomics to estimate impulse responses to policy interventions. Yet, in many ways, they are black boxes. It is often unclear what mechanism or historical episodes drive a particular estimate....

2025-09-04 0 5.05MB 67页
欧洲央行：地理与收入：碳税的异质性效应（英文版）

The distributive effects of carbon taxation are critical for its political acceptability and depend on both income and geographic factors. Using French administrative data, household surveys, and matched employer-employee records, we document that ru...

2025-09-04 0 7.78MB 69页
欧洲央行：央行与非专家的沟通：来自大规模实地实验的见解（英文版）

We conducted a randomized field experiment to investigate the impact of direct central bank communication on the monetary policy knowledge and expectations of non-experts. Between 2022 and 2025, at the ECB Visitor Centre, we exposed nearly 5,000 part...

2025-09-04 0 2.15MB 72页
药物戒烟在中国恶性肿瘤一级预防中的卫生经济学评价

对中国常见的戒烟药物干预策略进行成本效用分析，以探究药物戒烟作为中国恶性肿瘤一级预防策略的卫生经济性。方法　通过建立Markov队列模拟模型，模拟10 000名35岁有戒烟意愿的人群采用多种药物戒烟策略的干预效果。模型共纳入12种与吸烟相关的恶性肿瘤，分别为肺癌、口腔癌、鼻咽癌、喉癌、食管癌、胃癌、胰腺癌、肝癌、肾癌、膀胱癌、宫颈癌和髓系白血病。以 1年为循环周期，模拟时长为50个周期，评价指标采用增量成本效用比（ICER），意愿支付阈值为1倍人均国民生产总值。通过单因素敏感性分析、概率...

2025-09-04 0 1.64MB 10页
加拿大国际治理创新中心CIGI：呼吁应对人形人工智能对思想自由的威胁（英文版）

Bonding chatbots represent a new frontier in digital technology — one that merges affective computing with machine learning to simulate emotionally significant human relationships. While these tools may offer support to individuals grappling with lon...

2025-09-02 0 228.07KB 10页
韩国央行：气候变化对韩国经济的影响：基于函数数据的聚合VAR（英文版）

This study investigates the economic effects of climate change on small open economies within a broader global context, using South Korea as a case study. We apply advanced econometric techniques to analyze high-dimensional functional data and employ...

2025-09-01 0 2.48MB 51页
欧洲央行：如何在VAR模型中进行贝叶斯联合推理？（英文版）

When economic analysis requires simultaneous inference across multiple variables and time horizons, this paper shows that conventional pointwise quantiles in Bayesian structural vector autoregressions significantly understate the uncertainty of impul...

2025-09-01 1 5.03MB 64页
欧洲央行：央行公司债券购买交易中的异质中介（英文版）

This paper studies the role of financial intermediaries in the transmission of central bank corporate bond purchases to bond yields. Contrary to standard expectations, we find that mutual funds—typically viewed as price-elastic investors—amplify, rat...

2025-09-01 1 3.12MB 95页
ADB亚洲开发银行：财政压力下的货币政策：财政主导的前瞻性分析（英文版）

Subdued economic activity and low tax revenues, especially during crises, drive borrowing and increase public debt. During these periods, to ease the debt burden, central banks may face pressure to deviate from policy targets. Under fiscal dominance,...

2025-09-01 1 1.76MB 43页
国际货币基金组织：货币机器内部：流动性、到期日和信贷转换建模（英文版）

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2025-09-01 0 2.66MB 61页
国际货币基金组织：跨境移民对拉丁美洲和加勒比国家劳动力参与性别差距的影响（英文版）

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2025-09-01 0 2.5MB 32页
世界银行：脱碳化航空运输：准实验的洞见

2023年中美直飞航班仅占2019年同期的7%。这项准实验为航空运输脱碳化辩论提供了信息。据估计的结构模型显示，恢复疫情前的直飞连通性可将旅客数量增加387 %并使价格降低63%。此外，由于航班管制，二氧化碳排放下降了80%。一项反事实模拟表明，通过维持新冠疫情前的连接性，并通过市场机制（即抵消）实现相同的减排量，将导致旅客数量增加（+365%）、价格降低（−6 0%）以及消费者剩余的减少幅度更低（−40%），这比后新冠疫情时期的均衡状态观察到的要高。...

2025-09-01 0 1.07MB 21页

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