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国际货币基金组织：经济构造：美国经济结构变化和生产率趋势（英文版）

The U.S. economy has undergone profound structural transformations in recent decades. This descriptive study analyzes tradable and nontradable sectoral trends, with our findings demonstrating that the share of tradable sector employment and, within i...

2025-08-14 46 5.32MB 53页
国际货币基金组织：量化宽松的宏观经济和财政后果（英文版）

Quantitative easing (QE) has been criticized for helping fuel the post-COVID inflation boom and causing large central bank losses. In this paper, we argue that QE should be evaluated mainly on its ability to achieve core macro-objectives as well for ...

2025-08-14 33 951.37KB 52页
国际货币基金组织：让成本会计数据为公共财务管理服务（英文版）

This paper examines the role of cost accounting in public financial management, focusing on budget credibility, performance-based budgeting, public procurement, and corruption detection. Despite demonstrated benefits, cost accounting remains underuti...

2025-08-14 33 942.42KB 42页
国际货币基金组织：中国的产业政策：量化及其对资源错配的影响（英文版）

This paper quantifies the size of the main industrial policy instruments in China and estimates their impact on domestic factor misallocation and aggregate productivity. The quantification of industrial policy instruments leverages data from financ...

2025-08-14 33 1.03MB 31页
欧洲央行：驾驭利率浪潮：2022-2023货币周期欧元区银行的利率与风险（英文版）

This paper examines how the ECB’s 2022–2023 interest-rate hikes affected euro-area banks’ economic net worth and vulnerability to deposit runs. Drawing on granular, confidential data for 139 banks, we estimate each bank’s economic net worth and find ...

2025-08-14 38 5.38MB 63页
欧洲央行：ESG银行监管对新可持续技术融资的影响（英文版）

How does environmental, social and governance regulation of banks affect capital provision to the sustainability transition? As ambitious sustainability targets face funding challenges, the financial sector is tasked with channeling more private capi...

2025-08-14 39 2.27MB 91页
欧洲央行：高阶风险敞口（英文版）

Traditional exposure measures focus on direct exposures to evaluate the losses an institution is exposed to upon the default of a counterparty. Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, the importance of indirect exposures via common asset hold...

2025-08-14 33 4.63MB 57页
欧洲央行：气候压力测试对银行贷款的影响（英文版）

Do climate stress tests affect bank credit supply to brown firms? Using a differencein-differences approach and detailed data on individual bank loans in the euro area, this paper provides novel evidence on the effects of the ECB’s 2022 climate risk ...

2025-08-14 39 2.1MB 62页
操作系统智能体：基于多模态大模型（MLLM）的通用计算设备智能体综述（英文版）

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2025-08-13 25 3.43MB 36页
美联储：从银行贷款标准到银行信贷条件：一种SVAR方法（英文版）

This paper uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model—identified with an external monetary policy instrument and sign restrictions—to derive a measure of bank credit conditions from changes in bank lending standards. The model incorporates ...

2025-08-13 34 2.47MB 50页
美联储：滞胀时期的股票回报（英文版）

We study investors’ perceptions of inflation through the lens of a high-frequency event study, documenting they have a stagflationary view of the world. In response to higher-than-expected inflation, investors expect firms’ nominal cash flows to rema...

2025-08-13 24 1.58MB 82页
美联储：关于“非线性世界中的动态因果效应：好的、坏的与丑陋的”的讨论（英文版）

This comment discusses Kolesár and Plagbord-Møller (2025) finding that the standard linear local projection (LP) estimator recovers the average marginal effect (AME) even in nonlinear settings. We apply and discuss a subset their results using a simp...

2025-08-13 24 500.77KB 12页
美联储：间接信贷供给：银行向私人信贷发放贷款如何影响货币政策传导（英文版）

This paper examines how banks’ financing of nonbank lenders affects monetary policy transmission. Using supervisory bank loan-level data and deal-level private credit data, we document an intermediation chain: Banks lend to Business Development Compa...

2025-08-13 30 1.21MB 82页
美联储：金融稳定理论遭遇现实（英文版）

A large literature at the intersection of economics and finance offers prescriptions for regulating banks to increase financial stability. This literature abstracts from the discretion that accounting standards give banks over financial reporting, cr...

2025-08-13 26 600.53KB 65页
美联储：美国的大型企业与新技术发展轨迹（英文版）

We provide evidence that mega firms have played an increasingly important role in shaping new technological trajectories in recent years. While the share of novel patents—defined as patents introducing new combinations of technological components— pr...

2025-08-13 24 2.33MB 55页
美联储：统一的人口与劳动力统计数据（英文版）

The official labor force statistics often exhibit discontinuities in January, when updated population estimates are incorporated into the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the current year but are not revised backward through history. We construct ...

2025-08-13 22 791.56KB 69页
美联储：线性与非线性计量经济学模型与机器学习模型的对比：已实现波动率预测（英文版）

This paper fills an important gap in the volatility forecasting literature by comparing a broad suite of machine learning (ML) methods with both linear and nonlinear econometric models using high-frequency realized volatility (RV) data for the S&...

2025-08-13 30 862.88KB 68页
王成山：园区型综合能源系统多时间尺度模型预测优化调度

在冷/热/电综合能源系统中，协调多种设备使其优化运行，经济可靠地满足系统用能需求十分重要，制定合理有效的调度策略是实现这一目标的关键。该文针对一个实际园区综合能源系统冬季运行优化调度问题进行研究。在对设备进行详细建模基础上，建立包含滚动优化环节和动态调整环节的两阶段多时间尺度模型预测控制调度策略：滚动优化阶段以系统运行费用和机组启停罚金最小为目标，结合分时电价并考虑多系统互补运行，通过多步滚动求解制定系统大时间尺度调度计划；动态调整阶段以滚动优化阶段调控计划为基准，对设备的运行状...

2025-08-13 31 1.31MB 14页
葛磊蛟：面向零碳园区的综合能源系统优化运行技术综述

双碳背景下，零碳园区级综合能源系统(integrated energy system，IES)成为我国节能降碳、提质增效政策的重点。然而，园区级综合能源系统具有源-网-荷-储一体化、多能互补、供需方动态博弈等特点，其优化运行技术面临强不确定性和耦合机理不明等诸多挑战。为此，对零碳园区级 IES 优化运行的研究现状、关键技术与未来发展趋势等方面进行综述至关重要。该文首先聚焦于多类型能源耦合能效提升，系统阐述了零碳园区级综合能源系统架构；进一步，从零碳园区实施路径入手，对零碳园区级综合能...

2025-08-13 30 2.6MB 15页
“Be My Cheese”多语言大语言模型翻译中文化细微差别的评估

本试点研究旨在探索最先进的多语言人工智能(AD模型在将习语、双关语等比喻性语言从英语翻译成全球多种语言时所具备的本地化能力。现有大语言模型(LLM)翻译研究及行业基准测试注重语法准确性和标记级正确性，而本研究在此基础上进一步拓展，聚焦文化适宜性和整体本地化质量，而后者是市场营销、电子商务等真实应用场景中的关键因素。为探究此类挑战，本项目评估了20种语言的24种地区方言中，由LLM生成的87份电子商务营销邮件翻译样本。精通各目标语言的人类评审员从与原文语气、含义的忠实度以及对目标受众的适配度等方面...

2025-08-12 27 560.58KB 15页

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