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世界银行：大规模推动：巴基斯坦旁遮普省学校停课期间政府短信活动的证据（英文版）

Text and voice messages have emerged as a low-cost and popular tool for nudging recipients to change behavior. This paper presents findings from a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate the impact of an information campaign using text and v...

2026-01-13 16 891.87KB 36页
世界银行：公司信贷约束与电子支付：全球分析（英文版）

Understanding the drivers of credit constraints is essential for fostering private sector development and firm growth. This study examines the channels through which electronic payments influence firm credit constraints across 101 economies. It explo...

2026-01-13 19 951.64KB 34页
世界银行：“我想突破束缚”：法律和社会规范如何为女性打开机会之门（英文版）

This paper develops a conceptual framework to analyze how gendered social norms mediate the effects of legal frameworks on women’s economic empowerment. Using the World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law domains, Safety, Mobility, Work, Pay, Marriage...

2026-01-13 13 1.34MB 66页
世界银行：不偏不倚：重组作为结果的反射（英文版）

This paper examines whether project restructuring improves World Bank project performance. Using panel data on Implementation Status and Results ratings, it combines two-way fixed effects with the PanelMatch estimator to address concerns that restruc...

2026-01-13 15 3.76MB 54页
智能体人工智能的进展：回到未来（英文版）

In light of the recent convergence between Agentic AI and our field ofAlgorithmization, this paper seeks to restore conceptual clarity and provide a structuredanalytical framework for an increasingly fragmented discourse. First, (a) it examines theco...

2026-01-12 13 1.69MB 55页
国际货币基金组织：解决博茨瓦纳的增长瓶颈（英文版）

While Botswana achieved strong post-independence growth supported by prudent macroeconomic management and diamond revenues, economic performance has weakened over the past two decades, with slower growth, persistently high unemployment, and erosion o...

2026-01-12 10 569.78KB 22页
国际货币基金组织：克罗地亚的通货膨胀：财政政策的作用（英文版）

After a period of sharp deceleration, inflation in Croatia has inched up since late 2024 to about 4–4½ percent year-on-year lately, among the highest in the euro area. As monetary policy is set at the euro zone level, this paper aims to quantify how ...

2026-01-12 8 3.74MB 24页
世界银行：马来西亚得的社会援助：谁受益，谁错失（英文版）

This paper presents an in-depth analysis of who benefits and who misses out on social assistance (SA) transfers in Malaysia. As the first in a two-part series on SA, the paper uses data from the Household Income Survey (HIS) of 2019 and 2022 to asses...

2026-01-12 31 1.04MB 39页
印度国际经济关系研究理事会（ICRIER）：女性在劳动力市场：将对话从中央推进到各州（英文版）

State financing plays a key role in driving economic growth at the sub-national level. While much is spoken about the state-centre relationship with respect to the devolution of funds, there is relatively less emphasis on the gender inclusivity of th...

2026-01-12 9 1.17MB 18页
世界银行：变革的种子：印度引进Bt棉花的影响（英文版）

Although many studies have examined the factors affecting structural transformation, the role of relative factor endowments has not been extensively explored. This paper examines the effects of the introduction of Bt cotton in India and finds substan...

2026-01-09 16 3.67MB 54页
世界银行：世界银行非洲增长与机遇：行动研究会议（英文版）

This paper examines whether the African Growth and Opportunity Act—the United States’ unilateral trade pref‑ erence program for Sub‑Saharan Africa—has served as an effective instrument for development and what its modern‑ ization should entail. The s...

2026-01-09 12 336.28KB 13页
碎片化悖论：降低贸易风险与全球安全（英文版）

We develop a model embedding a diplomatic game within a quantitative model of trade. Bilateral disputes arise exogenously, and rival countries engage in negotiations (which may fail) to avoid war. All welfare-relevant geoeconomic factors, such as the...

2026-01-09 9 738.33KB 43页
波鸿鲁尔大学&MPI-SWS：生成式AI时代网络搜索特征研究（英文版）

The advent of LLMs has given rise to a new type of web search: Generative search, where LLMs retrieve web pages related to a query and generate a single, coherent text as a response. This output modality stands in stark contrast to traditional web se...

2026-01-08 11 3.46MB 24页
CEPR：工作的未来（英文版）

I will provide a brief overview of some of the main questions and challenges facing today's labour markets. Let me start with some very broad and simple data, some aggregate trends for the US labour market. I’ll begin with some relatively good ne...

2026-01-08 18 14.08MB 52页
国民经济研究局：中国货币政策传导的内外机制（英文版）

Using a novel indicator for the People's Bank of China monetary policy stance, we estimate a policy rule that accounts for the dual nature of its price stability mandate---encompassing domestic inflation and the exchange rate---and for the evolut...

2026-01-08 8 4.43MB 67页
国际货币基金组织：阿鲁巴的海平面上升与气候适应（英文版）

Sea-level rise presents long-term risks in Aruba that can lead to sizable permanent costs with potentially large macroeconomic and fiscal consequences. Aruba cannot control global sea-level, but it can manage how it affects the country by adapting. U...

2026-01-08 9 1.13MB 20页
国际货币基金组织：阿鲁巴的人口统计及其对劳动力市场和产出的潜在影响（英文版）

: Historically, Aruba benefited from population growth that expanded the labor force, thereby boosting productivity and fostering economic growth—a phenomenon known as the “demographic dividend”. However, declining fertility rates and a rapidly aging...

2026-01-08 11 1.01MB 21页
国际货币基金组织：改善克罗地亚人力资本投资：教育和医疗公共支出的效率（英文版）

Croatia’s public spending efficiency in education and healthcare can be increased. Increased efficiency would free fiscal resources that could be used for fiscal savings and/or improved outcomes. This would require reforms such as consolidating schoo...

2026-01-08 8 4.05MB 69页
国际货币基金组织：评估亚美尼亚的财政框架（英文版）

This paper evaluates Armenia’s fiscal framework, focusing on fiscal rule design and implementation. Despite the 2018 reforms strengthening the Armenia’s fiscal rules, limitations persist: rules are somewhat procyclical and complex, ex-post enforcemen...

2026-01-08 8 846.26KB 23页
国际货币基金组织：气候适应与能源改革：增强博茨瓦纳的宏观经济韧性（英文版）

Botswana faces mounting macroeconomic risks from intensifying climate trends and fiscal strain from electricity subsidies. Rising temperatures, more frequent extreme heat, and longer droughts threaten agricultural yields, labor productivity, and long...

2026-01-08 7 1.25MB 29页

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