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大语言模型的后训练：深入探究推理（英文版）

Abstract—Large Language Models (LLMs) have transformed the natural language processing landscape and brought to life diverse applications. Pretraining on vast web-scale data has laid the foundation for these models, yet the research community is now ...

2025-03-10 22 2.68MB 31页
Hinrich Foundation：2025年航行移潮：韩国与东北亚贸易一体化（英文版）

This essay examines South Korea’s response to the volatile geopolitical and economic landscape in Northeast Asia, highlighting its multi-track free trade agreement (FTA) strategy and its economic statecraft amid the rising techno-hegemonic competitio...

2025-03-07 34 263.34KB 22页
世界银行集团对撒哈拉以南非洲电力获取支持效果评估（2015–2024年）

本评估评估了世界银行集团在2015-24年期间对支特撒哈拉以南非洲地区电力接人所做的贡献。电力接入是指最终用户使用能源供应来获取所需能源服务的能力。因此，电力接入包括供应和需求因素。1本评估基于2015年独立评估组(IEG)对该同一主题的评估(世界银行2015)，但聚焦于撒哈拉以南非洲，因为主要电力接入差距仍存在于该区域，并且世界银行集团已经恢复了至2030年补差距的努力。...

2025-03-07 136 2.08MB 61页
世界银行：法律上的和事实上的覆盖范围关于尼泊尔的父母福利

女性几乎占尼泊尔年轻劳动年龄人口的近一半,但她们参与劳动力的可能性低于男性。当她们就业时，她们主要在非正式或维持生计的工作中工作，这些工作以缺乏社会保护和相对于男性的低工资为特征。这些结果背后的一个关键因素是，育儿责任主要落在女性身上，她们在工作中、在家庭中或更广泛的社会层面上得到的支持很少或不足。需要一个全面包容的父母福利框架,包括所有父母(男性和女性)，以及所有工作个人，无论其就业类型(正式、非正式、兼职)，以弥合育儿责任与女性就业之间的差距。在发展经济体中设计和实施此类福利时，必须意识到融...

2025-03-07 138 1.71MB 78页
DeepSeek Coder：当大型语言模型遇到编程时-代码智能的兴起

大型语言模型的快速发展已彻底革新了软件开发中的代码智能。然而，主要依赖闭源模型限制了广泛的研究与开发。为解决这一问题，我们推出了DeepSeek-Coder系列开源代码模型，其规模从13亿到330亿不等，并从2万亿个标记中从头开始训练。这些模型预先在高质量的项目级代码语料库上进行训练，并采用16K窗口的填空任务来增强代码生成和填补。我们的广泛评估表明，DeepSeek-Coder不仅在多个基准测试中实现了开源代码模型的最佳性能，还超越了现有的闭源模型如Codex和GPT-3.5。此外，...

2025-03-07 37 2.28MB 23页
世界银行：社区卫生工作者作为易用避孕注射剂的主要提供者：来自布隆迪农村的实验证据（英文版）

This study employs a cluster randomized controlled trial and administrative health center data to investigate the effects of authorizing community health workers to deliver a new generation of contraceptive injections directly to women during routine...

2025-03-06 275 879.06KB 30页
世界银行：重温新兴市场经济体贸易的收益：东亚和东非部分经济体的案例（英文版）

Following the gains from variety literature, this paper estimates the welfare impact of growth of the variety of imported goods in 28 countries in East Africa and East Asia and compares the results. While estimating the gains from variety, the elasti...

2025-03-06 262 638.07KB 35页
美联储：地缘政治与货币政策：解读其对跨境银行贷款的影响（英文版）

We use bilateral cross-border bank claims by nationality to assess the effects of geopolitics on cross-border bank flows. We show that a rise in geopolitical tensions between countries — disagreements in UN voting, broad sanctions, or sentiments capt...

2025-03-05 41 1001.03KB 55页
美联储：估算流通中的假冒美国货币数量（英文版）

The incidence of currency counterfeiting and the possible total stock of counterfeits in circulation are popular topics of speculation and discussion in the press and are of substantial practical interest to the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury and...

2025-03-05 25 415.22KB 20页
美联储：国债市场深度与流动性脆弱性的关系（英文版）

Analysis of market liquidity often focuses on measures of the current cost of trading. However, investors and policy-makers also care about what would happen to liquidity in the event of an adverse shock. If liquidity were to deteriorate rapidly at t...

2025-03-05 48 3.6MB 43页
欧洲央行：能源危机期间的财政和宏观审慎政策（英文版）

We construct a New-Keynesian E-DSGE model with energy disaggregation and financial intermediaries to show how energy-related fiscal and macroprudential policies interact in affecting the euro area macroeconomy and carbon emissions. When a shock to th...

2025-03-05 39 2.79MB 52页
欧洲央行：企业所有权与激励性泄漏的宏观经济学（英文版）

Questions about market power have become salient in macroeconomics. We consider the role of institutional structures in addressing these within a dynamic general equilibrium framework. Standard models account for monopoly profits as a lump-sum transf...

2025-03-05 37 3.02MB 74页
世界银行：财政规则的动态效应：初始条件重要吗？（英文版）

Fiscal rules have been shown to support fiscal discipline by improving government budget balances and restraining the growth of debt. However, questions remain about what enhances their effectiveness and how certain conditions help to build the credi...

2025-03-05 109 2MB 50页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：社会情绪技能中的代际流动性（英文版）

This paper investigates the intergenerational transmission of socio-emotional skills during childhood, using data from the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) in the United Kingdom. This dataset enables us to measure two dimensions of socio-emotional d...

2025-03-04 28 3.73MB 54页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：英国当地住房供应的决定因素（英文版）

We estimate local housing supply elasticities for 325 local authorities and 6,788 census tract areas in England. We examine how housing supply responds to price changes across small areas and how this varies according to a rich set of geographic and ...

2025-03-04 22 2.36MB 53页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：价格冲击和家庭一揽子救济对福利的影响能源危机的证据（英文版）

Aggregate price shocks can lead to significant inequality in losses both across and within income groups. This creates a trade-off between supporting households through subsidies, which target those most affected but introduce inefficiencies, and tra...

2025-03-04 31 1.85MB 79页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：附带参数问题的新正化方法（英文版）

A popular approach to perform inference on a target parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters is to construct estimating equations that are orthogonal to the nuisance parameters, in the sense that their expected first derivative is zero. Such ...

2025-03-04 24 740.06KB 71页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：英国退休后财富积累的种族差异（英文版）

Private pensions constitute the largest component of household wealth in the UK, and the vast majority of employees are automatically enrolled into workplace pension plans. Drawing on employer-reported pension data matched with the population census,...

2025-03-04 29 811.09KB 42页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：预测集和与审查结果一致的推论（英文版）

Given data on a scalar random variable , a prediction set for with miscoverage level is a set of values for that contains a randomly drawn with probability 1 − , where ∈ (0, 1). Among all prediction sets that satisfy this coverage property, the ...

2025-03-04 20 1.54MB 49页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：为什么提高提前退休年龄会影响就业（英文版）

Why do workers delay retirement when their early retirement age (ERA) rises? Understanding this is essential for predicting the effects of ERA increases in different contexts and assessing distributional impacts of such reforms. We study ten years of...

2025-03-04 22 634.75KB 52页

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