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国际货币基金组织：如何（不）为燃料产品定价（英文版）

Half of all countries in the world regulate fuel prices through various forms of interventions in price formulas. These interventions pursue a range of social, political, and economic objectives, including protecting consumers from price volatility o...

2026-07-05 0 4.03MB 26页
国际货币基金组织：升级全球金融安全网：综合储备存款的影响（英文版）

Sovereigns self-insure via reserve accumulation, prioritizing liquidity over yield. This practice imposes opportunity costs and can amplify the convenience premium on traditional reserve assets. This paper evaluates Synthetic Reserve Deposits (SRDs),...

2026-07-05 0 3.89MB 58页
拉丁美洲经济委员会：在不确定时期重新思考南南合作和三角合作（英文版）

The Regional Conference on South-South Cooperation in Latin America and the Caribbean is one of the subsidiary bodies of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and was established pursuant to resolution 752(PLEN.36) adopt...

2026-07-05 0 726.35KB 34页
谢克昌院士：新型能源体系发展背景下煤炭清洁高效转化的挑战及途径

当今世界地缘政治风险加剧、气候环境问题凸显，能源转型变革加快。在此背景下，构建更加适应形势变化的能源体系对提高我国能源供应系统的可持续性及安全稳定性意义重大。目前我国化石能源仍然占据主体地位。油气资源存在能源安全问题及新能源技术水平有待提升，中国短期内对煤炭能源仍将保持较高依赖性。因此，推进煤炭清洁高效转化对于新型能源体系的构建具有重要意义。本文首先对新型能源体系的具体内涵与构建方向展开了讨论，并在此基础上，对新时代中国煤化工产业的发展现状以及面临的机遇与挑战进行了阐述，以期为煤炭的清洁高效转化...

2026-07-03 0 1.25MB 14页
国际货币基金组织：最低工资与非正式约束（英文版）

How does informality shape the impact of minimum wage policy?We study this question using evidence from Mexico’s 145% real increase in the minimum wage since 2016, together with a general equilibrium model featuring endogenous informality and househo...

2026-07-03 0 2.38MB 74页
模智空间：深度解读自进化智能体的三大演进路线（英文版）

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has empowered autonomous agents with advanced reasoning, planning, and tool-use capabilities. However, traditional agent systems rely heavily on human-guided training. Despite the reduced data vol...

2026-07-02 0 2.73MB 27页
AMRO：全球银行违约周期：国家间的暴露和商业周期的影响（英文版）

This paper studies a global banking-sector default cycle constructed from firm-level probabilities of default across a broad set of countries and evaluates its macro-financial implications. Using a dynamic factor model, we extract a dominant global c...

2026-07-02 0 5.41MB 44页
国际劳工组织（ILO）：加强非洲工会合作与协作的良好做法和战略建议（英文版）

This study examines trade union cooperation and collaboration across Africa as a means of strengthening workers’ bargaining power, policy influence and organisational effectiveness. Focusing on eight case studies across different African sub-regions,...

2026-07-02 0 3.68MB 76页
国际劳工组织（ILO）：通用大型语言模型能提升医生的临床推理能力吗？（英文版）

This paper investigates whether access to a general-purpose large language model (LLM) improves physicians’ clinical reasoning across diverse healthcare contexts, as well as the possible implications of using an LLM in healthcare settings. Using a ra...

2026-07-02 0 1.09MB 42页
美联储：财政政策、投资组合摩擦与国际传导（英文版）

I study the international transmission of fiscal policy and its impact on the real exchange rate (RER) and net exports. I document that periods of high government debt are strongly associated with a depreciated RER and subsequent increases in net exp...

2026-07-01 0 9.11MB 133页
美联储：超越储备：美联储的资产负债表和回购市场（英文版）

We present a new constraint on the size of the Fed’s balance sheet: repo market capacity. Calibrating a structural model to the recent monetary tightening cycle, we show that repo market capacity—driven by money market fund liquidity supply—is the bi...

2026-07-01 0 1.09MB 70页
国际清算银行：财政风险的财务和实际影响（英文版）

We examine what happens when investors question fiscal sustainability and demand higher sovereign bond yields as compensation for higher risk. We call these episodes fiscal risk shocks. Such shocks can arise, for example, from a government announcing...

2026-07-01 0 1.09MB 70页
国际清算银行：公共债务与货币政策传导：来自发达和新兴欧洲的证据（英文版）

In standard models of monetary policy, public debt is assumed to have no role. Policy rate changes affect output and inflation through conventional channels, and any fiscal consequences of interest rate changes are assumed to be offset by correspondi...

2026-07-01 0 1.3MB 41页
颜娟：从“被动养老”到“主动享老”：低龄活力老人消费升级的驱动机制研究

随着我国人口老龄化进程加快，低龄活力老人(60~75岁)群体规模持续扩大，其消费形态正经历从“被动养老”到“主动享老”的根本性转变。本研究聚焦这一群体消费升级的驱动机制，基于“物质-身体-社会-技术”的四维分析框架，综合运用国家统计局、国家税务总局等官方公开数据，系统考察低龄老人消费升级的内生动力与外源推力。研究发现:经济基础与身体健康构成消费升级的物质前提，家庭社会责任的阶段性“脱绑”释放了休闲时间与消费意愿，同质群体间的社交比较催生消费趣味的动态追逐，数字技术的适老化演进则提供了场景赋能的可...

2026-06-25 0 588.55KB 7页
国际货币基金组织：欧洲银行联盟的障碍（英文版）

We quantify barriers to cross-border banking within the euro area and their consequences for credit allocation and output. Using loan-level data from the European credit registry (AnaCredit) and group structures (RIAD), we estimate barriers to relati...

2026-06-18 0 4.06MB 96页
国际货币基金组织：释放卢旺达的出口潜力：消除结构性瓶颈（英文版）

Rwanda’s export base remains narrow and concentrated, limiting diversification and contributing to persistent external imbalances. Despite strong growth and substantial public investment, competitiveness challenges—including high logistics costs, lim...

2026-06-18 0 1.46MB 19页
国际货币基金组织：碎片化世界中的东盟贸易与投资（英文版）

: This paper examines the short- and medium-term effects of the 2018–19 China-U.S. tariff increases on the trade and investment flows of ASEAN member economies. Using granular trade data, we demonstrate that several ASEAN countries experienced a disp...

2026-06-18 0 2.31MB 31页
国际货币基金组织：通过包容实现韧性：卢旺达的妇女和数据驱动的气候政策（英文版）

Climate shocks represent a recurrent macroeconomic risk for Rwanda, affecting growth, fiscal stability, and household welfare. Gender inclusion is macro-critical to Rwanda’s growth and resilience strategy, shaping the effectiveness of adaptation and ...

2026-06-18 0 2.18MB 22页
中国社会科学院世经政所（李隽旸）：世界银行发展知识的推广：基于权力视角的分析

为什么多边援助机构 ( 如世界银行) 提供的 “发展知识”能被受援国采纳并形成约束力? 发展知识如何经由国际组织向受援国推广? 既有发展援助研究探讨了发展知识的生产与接受，以及发展知识推广的具体形式，但仍缺乏能够展示国际组织与受援国间关系的整体性视角。基于国际关系研究中的权力类型学构建的关于发展知识如何推广的总体性理论框架表明，以世界银行为代表的多边援助机构通过 “强制” “社会化” “定位”与 “定义” 四种形式进行发展知识推广，这四种形式分别对应国际关系中的强制性权力、制度性权...

2026-06-17 0 298.24KB 22页
中国社会科学院世经政所（吴国鼎）：大股东持股比例对企业现金股利的影响-基于信贷融资中介效应的检验

企业的股权结构能够对现金股利产生影响。使用２００６—２０２３年中国沪深上市企业数据，运用中介效应检验方法，考察了大股东持股比例变化通过信贷融资对企业现金股利的影响。研究发现，大股东持股比例越高，企业发放的现金股利越多。考察信贷融资的中介效应，大股东持股比例越高，企业的信贷融资越多，进而对企业的现金股利产生更大影响。区分短期借款和长期借款，大股东持股比例越高，企业的短期借款越少，长期借款越多。信贷融资的中介效应存在异质性：企业的公司治理状况、大股东持股比例区间以及企业所属行...

2026-06-17 0 1.26MB 18页

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