开通会员限时优惠

登录 | 注册

全部分类

学术论文

类型:

国际劳工组织（ILO）：通用大型语言模型能提升医生的临床推理能力吗？（英文版）

This paper investigates whether access to a general-purpose large language model (LLM) improves physicians’ clinical reasoning across diverse healthcare contexts, as well as the possible implications of using an LLM in healthcare settings. Using a ra...

2026-07-02 0 1.09MB 42页
美联储：财政政策、投资组合摩擦与国际传导（英文版）

I study the international transmission of fiscal policy and its impact on the real exchange rate (RER) and net exports. I document that periods of high government debt are strongly associated with a depreciated RER and subsequent increases in net exp...

2026-07-01 0 9.11MB 133页
美联储：超越储备：美联储的资产负债表和回购市场（英文版）

We present a new constraint on the size of the Fed’s balance sheet: repo market capacity. Calibrating a structural model to the recent monetary tightening cycle, we show that repo market capacity—driven by money market fund liquidity supply—is the bi...

2026-07-01 0 1.09MB 70页
国际清算银行：财政风险的财务和实际影响（英文版）

We examine what happens when investors question fiscal sustainability and demand higher sovereign bond yields as compensation for higher risk. We call these episodes fiscal risk shocks. Such shocks can arise, for example, from a government announcing...

2026-07-01 0 1.09MB 70页
国际清算银行：公共债务与货币政策传导：来自发达和新兴欧洲的证据（英文版）

In standard models of monetary policy, public debt is assumed to have no role. Policy rate changes affect output and inflation through conventional channels, and any fiscal consequences of interest rate changes are assumed to be offset by correspondi...

2026-07-01 0 1.3MB 41页
颜娟：从“被动养老”到“主动享老”：低龄活力老人消费升级的驱动机制研究

随着我国人口老龄化进程加快，低龄活力老人(60~75岁)群体规模持续扩大，其消费形态正经历从“被动养老”到“主动享老”的根本性转变。本研究聚焦这一群体消费升级的驱动机制，基于“物质-身体-社会-技术”的四维分析框架，综合运用国家统计局、国家税务总局等官方公开数据，系统考察低龄老人消费升级的内生动力与外源推力。研究发现:经济基础与身体健康构成消费升级的物质前提，家庭社会责任的阶段性“脱绑”释放了休闲时间与消费意愿，同质群体间的社交比较催生消费趣味的动态追逐，数字技术的适老化演进则提供了场景赋能的可...

2026-06-25 0 588.55KB 7页
国际货币基金组织：欧洲银行联盟的障碍（英文版）

We quantify barriers to cross-border banking within the euro area and their consequences for credit allocation and output. Using loan-level data from the European credit registry (AnaCredit) and group structures (RIAD), we estimate barriers to relati...

2026-06-18 0 4.06MB 96页
国际货币基金组织：释放卢旺达的出口潜力：消除结构性瓶颈（英文版）

Rwanda’s export base remains narrow and concentrated, limiting diversification and contributing to persistent external imbalances. Despite strong growth and substantial public investment, competitiveness challenges—including high logistics costs, lim...

2026-06-18 0 1.46MB 19页
国际货币基金组织：碎片化世界中的东盟贸易与投资（英文版）

: This paper examines the short- and medium-term effects of the 2018–19 China-U.S. tariff increases on the trade and investment flows of ASEAN member economies. Using granular trade data, we demonstrate that several ASEAN countries experienced a disp...

2026-06-18 0 2.31MB 31页
国际货币基金组织：通过包容实现韧性：卢旺达的妇女和数据驱动的气候政策（英文版）

Climate shocks represent a recurrent macroeconomic risk for Rwanda, affecting growth, fiscal stability, and household welfare. Gender inclusion is macro-critical to Rwanda’s growth and resilience strategy, shaping the effectiveness of adaptation and ...

2026-06-18 0 2.18MB 22页
中国社会科学院世经政所（李隽旸）：世界银行发展知识的推广：基于权力视角的分析

为什么多边援助机构 ( 如世界银行) 提供的 “发展知识”能被受援国采纳并形成约束力? 发展知识如何经由国际组织向受援国推广? 既有发展援助研究探讨了发展知识的生产与接受，以及发展知识推广的具体形式，但仍缺乏能够展示国际组织与受援国间关系的整体性视角。基于国际关系研究中的权力类型学构建的关于发展知识如何推广的总体性理论框架表明，以世界银行为代表的多边援助机构通过 “强制” “社会化” “定位”与 “定义” 四种形式进行发展知识推广，这四种形式分别对应国际关系中的强制性权力、制度性权...

2026-06-17 0 298.24KB 22页
中国社会科学院世经政所（吴国鼎）：大股东持股比例对企业现金股利的影响-基于信贷融资中介效应的检验

企业的股权结构能够对现金股利产生影响。使用２００６—２０２３年中国沪深上市企业数据，运用中介效应检验方法，考察了大股东持股比例变化通过信贷融资对企业现金股利的影响。研究发现，大股东持股比例越高，企业发放的现金股利越多。考察信贷融资的中介效应，大股东持股比例越高，企业的信贷融资越多，进而对企业的现金股利产生更大影响。区分短期借款和长期借款，大股东持股比例越高，企业的短期借款越少，长期借款越多。信贷融资的中介效应存在异质性：企业的公司治理状况、大股东持股比例区间以及企业所属行...

2026-06-17 0 1.26MB 18页
银发经济背景下老年线上消费平台的供需错配问题与优化路径

在银发经济上升为国家战略的背景下，老年群体线上消费参与规模持续扩大，但平台供给与老年消费者需求之间的结构性错配问题日益凸显。本研究以老年线上消费平台为研究对象，基于信息不对称理论与前承理论，从信息、行为与技术三个维度系统分析供需错配的形成机制。研究发现:信息不对称引致逆向选择，抑制老年消费者的有效需求;损失厌恶与路径依赖在行为层面强化风险规避，降低消费意愿;数字技术门槛形成参与壁垒，限制潜在需求向实际消费转化。三类机制相互作用，共同制约老年群体的线上消费参与。在此基础上，本研究从优化平台信息供给...

2026-06-12 0 889.37KB 9页
国际清算银行：根据家庭的货币政策：看法、反应和渠道（英文版）

This paper studies how households perceive the transmission of monetary policy and how these perceptions affect their decisions. Using a large-scale survey of over 25,000 U.S. households combined with randomized information treatments, we measure how...

2026-06-10 0 1.47MB 61页
国际清算银行：控制数字风险：来自网络压力测试的证据（英文版）

Investment in cybersecurity in an interconnected banking system has public-good proper-ties: positive externalities can generate systemic underinvestment. Using confidential supervi-sory data from the European Central Bank, we first identify “laggard...

2026-06-10 0 1.52MB 53页
国际清算银行：利率水平如何影响信贷损失率？经验法则（英文版）

This paper investigates how changes in monetary policy interest rates affect credit loss rates in advanced and emerging market economies using annual data for 113 countries over the past three decades. Applying local projections, we find that a 1 per...

2026-06-10 0 4.1MB 52页
国际清算银行：使稳定币稳定（r）：监管能有所帮助吗？（英文版）

We model a stablecoin issuer that optimises capital, cash and bond holdings under persistent stablecoin flows. Absent regulation, the issuer holds little capital and favours interest-bearing but less-liquid bonds over cash. This exposes coin-holders ...

2026-06-10 0 2.42MB 55页
美联储：多花钱少买：2025年关税和美国家庭支出（英文版）

This paper estimates the effects of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on household spending using transaction-level data linked to tariff exposure and a tariff sentiment survey. Comparing high versus low tariff-exposed categories, we find 15 to 20 percent price ...

2026-06-10 0 1.12MB 86页
美联储：金融自由化、繁荣和崩溃（英文版）

Financial liberalization is often seen as a way to deepen credit markets and stimulate economic growth, but it may also fuel credit booms that end in crisis. We construct a new cross-country database of banking regulation policies covering 21 regulat...

2026-06-10 0 857.54KB 88页
美联储：双重惯性、泰勒规则与货币政策渐进主义（英文版）

In recent decades, an empirically estimated double-inertial rule fits the path of changes in the federal funds rate better than a standard inertial Taylor rule. Inertial Taylor rules aim to capture monetary policy gradualism via slow adjustments in t...

2026-06-10 0 428.32KB 23页

4

...

确认删除?