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世界银行：财政规则的动态效应：初始条件重要吗？（英文版）

Fiscal rules have been shown to support fiscal discipline by improving government budget balances and restraining the growth of debt. However, questions remain about what enhances their effectiveness and how certain conditions help to build the credi...

2025-03-05 109 2MB 50页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：社会情绪技能中的代际流动性（英文版）

This paper investigates the intergenerational transmission of socio-emotional skills during childhood, using data from the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) in the United Kingdom. This dataset enables us to measure two dimensions of socio-emotional d...

2025-03-04 28 3.73MB 54页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：英国当地住房供应的决定因素（英文版）

We estimate local housing supply elasticities for 325 local authorities and 6,788 census tract areas in England. We examine how housing supply responds to price changes across small areas and how this varies according to a rich set of geographic and ...

2025-03-04 22 2.36MB 53页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：价格冲击和家庭一揽子救济对福利的影响能源危机的证据（英文版）

Aggregate price shocks can lead to significant inequality in losses both across and within income groups. This creates a trade-off between supporting households through subsidies, which target those most affected but introduce inefficiencies, and tra...

2025-03-04 31 1.85MB 79页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：附带参数问题的新正化方法（英文版）

A popular approach to perform inference on a target parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters is to construct estimating equations that are orthogonal to the nuisance parameters, in the sense that their expected first derivative is zero. Such ...

2025-03-04 24 740.06KB 71页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：英国退休后财富积累的种族差异（英文版）

Private pensions constitute the largest component of household wealth in the UK, and the vast majority of employees are automatically enrolled into workplace pension plans. Drawing on employer-reported pension data matched with the population census,...

2025-03-04 29 811.09KB 42页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：预测集和与审查结果一致的推论（英文版）

Given data on a scalar random variable , a prediction set for with miscoverage level is a set of values for that contains a randomly drawn with probability 1 − , where ∈ (0, 1). Among all prediction sets that satisfy this coverage property, the ...

2025-03-04 20 1.54MB 49页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：为什么提高提前退休年龄会影响就业（英文版）

Why do workers delay retirement when their early retirement age (ERA) rises? Understanding this is essential for predicting the effects of ERA increases in different contexts and assessing distributional impacts of such reforms. We study ten years of...

2025-03-04 22 634.75KB 52页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：关注和退休成本（英文版）

In UK data, I document the prevalence of misbeliefs regarding the State Pension eligibility age (SPA) and these misbeliefs predictivity of retirement. Exploiting policy variation, I estimate a lifecycle model of retirement in which rationally inatten...

2025-03-04 29 891.38KB 41页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：逃税和缴款-福利联系产妇福利案例（英文版）

This paper studies tax evasion and the contribution-benefit link in the context of maternity benefits in Hungary. Earnings and employment patterns suggest pre-pregnancy underreporting, followed by formalization of some earnings and employment during ...

2025-03-04 30 1.08MB 34页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：坚实的质量和健康维护（英文版）

We estimate the impact of firm quality – primarily measured by firm productivity – on the health maintenance of employees. Using linked employer-employee administrative panel data from Hungary, we analyze the dynamics of healthcare use before and aft...

2025-03-04 32 1.02MB 40页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：个体福利分析随机准线性效用、独立性和信任界限（英文版）

We introduce a novel framework for individual-level welfare analysis. It builds on a parametric model for continuous demand with a quasilinear utility function, allowing for heterogeneous coefficients and unobserved individual-good-level preference s...

2025-03-04 26 641.47KB 58页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：用广义的比伦斯最大统计量对条件矩限制确定的参数的推断（英文版）

Many economic panel and dynamic models, such as rational behavior and Euler equations, imply that the parameters of interest are identified by conditional moment restrictions. We introduce a novel inference method without any prior information about ...

2025-03-04 27 899.5KB 54页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：基于经验福利最大化的时间序列中的政策选择（英文版）

This paper develops a novel method for policy choice in a dynamic setting where the available data is a multi-variate time series. Building on the statistical treatment choice framework, we propose Time-series Empirical Welfare Maximization (T-EWM) m...

2025-03-04 27 3.22MB 88页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：在具有交互式固定效果的面板中进行强有力的估计和推断（英文版）

This paper develops a novel method for policy choice in a dynamic setting where the available data is a multi-variate time series. Building on the statistical treatment choice framework, we propose Time-series Empirical Welfare Maximization (T-EWM) m...

2025-03-04 25 3.22MB 88页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：具有目标工具的治疗效果（英文版）

Multivalued treatments are commonplace in applications. We explore the use of discrete-valued instruments to control for selection bias in this setting. Our discussion revolves around the concept of targeting: which instruments target which treatment...

2025-03-04 17 639.3KB 67页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：从差异中学习说服的效果（英文版）

The persuasion rate is a key parameter for measuring the causal effect of a directional message on influencing the recipient’s behavior. Its identification has relied on exogenous treatment or the availability of credible instruments, but the require...

2025-03-04 27 665.98KB 66页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：犯罪网络中的溢出行为共同犯罪者死亡的证据（英文版）

We study spillover eects within criminal networks by leveraging the deaths of co-oenders as a source of causal identi cation. We nd that the death of a co-oender signi cantly reduces the criminal activities of other network members. These spillover ...

2025-03-04 38 867.02KB 47页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：婚姻分类的变化美国的理论和证据（英文版）

Positive assortative matching refers to the tendency of individuals with similar characteristics to form partnerships. Measuring the extent to which assortative matching differs between two economies is challenging when the marginal distributions of ...

2025-03-04 30 1.27MB 51页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：感觉到的冲击和冲动反应（英文版）

This paper develops a novel approach that leverages the information contained in expectations datasets to derive empirical measures of beliefs regarding economic shocks and their dynamic effects. Utilizing a panel of expectation revisions for a singl...

2025-03-04 25 1.11MB 53页

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