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英国财政研究所（IFS）：资源意外收入、公共支出和地方经济（英文版）

We use plausibly exogenous variation in the redistribution of natural resource tax revenues in Peru to study whether transfers to local governments can stimulate economic activity in lowincome areas. We show that resource windfalls to non-extractive ...

2025-03-04 21 4.24MB 75页
加拿大国际治理创新中心（CIGI）：一代大赦国际、民主和人权（英文版）

isinformation is not new, but given how disinformation campaigns are constructed, there is almost no stage that will not be rendered more effective by the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI). Given the unsatisfactory nature of current tool...

2025-03-04 24 334.41KB 14页
微软&卡内基梅隆大学：生成式人工智能对批判性思维的影响调查（英文版）

The rise of Generative AI (GenAI) in knowledge workflows raises questions about its impact on critical thinking skills and practices. We survey 319 knowledge workers to investigate 1) when and how they perceive the enaction of critical thinking when ...

2025-03-03 47 998.69KB 23页
阿斯彭研究所：回忆越战：悲剧、教训与非常规和平力量（英文版）

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2025-03-03 23 610.24KB 11页
国际货币基金组织：沙堡与金融体系：沙堆隐喻（英文版）

Social welfare costs from bank resolution, including contagion and moral hazard, are often thought to be minimized when supervisors can direct the merger of a failing bank with a sound, healthy one. However, social losses may become even larger if t...

2025-02-28 31 2.41MB 45页
国际货币基金组织：深度一体化的经济效益：2004年欧盟扩大20年后（英文版）

EU enlargement has stalled since the last member joined over ten years ago, marking the longest period without expansion since 1973. This elapsed time contrasts with the potential income gains membership promises. Drawing on the biggest EU enlargem...

2025-02-28 37 1.07MB 21页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：支付弱势青少年上学的短期和长期影响（英文版）

We evaluate the short- and long-run effects of a large conditional cash transfer program that paid students to remain in full-time education beyond the compulsory school-leaving age. The Education Maintenance Allowance paid teenagers from low-income ...

2025-02-27 45 679.69KB 55页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：想象一下你25岁的生活：性别一致性和后期生活的结果（英文版）

Using thousands of essays written by 11-year-olds in 1969, we construct an index measuring girls’ conformity to gender norms. We link this index to outcomes over the life-cycle. Conditional on age-11 covariates, a one standard deviation increase in o...

2025-02-27 24 3.35MB 73页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：多任务,两部分合同和集中医生任务的应用（英文版）

The optimal design of incentive contracts critically depends on whether the tasks performed by agents are complementary or substitutable, yet empirical evidence on this remains limited. This paper develops a novel empirical strategy to identify compl...

2025-02-27 43 3.05MB 90页
英国财政研究所（IFS）：用火山爆发来估计空气污染对学生考试成绩的影响（英文版）

We pair variation stemming from volcanic eruptions with the census of Hawai‘i’s public schools student test scores to estimate the impact of PM2.5 and SO2 on student performance. Increased particulate pollution decreases test scores. These results ar...

2025-02-27 26 2.05MB 71页
大语言模型最新综述：能力与局限性分析（英文版）

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, particularly with the development ofLarge Language Models (LLMs) built on the transformer architecture, has redefined thecapabilities of natural language processing. These models now exhibit remarkabl...

2025-02-26 45 10.65MB 174页
国际清洁运输理事会：加快零排放重型车辆市场的供应方监管主要政策的最佳做法（英文版）

As the technology to manufacture heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) that produce zero tailpipe emissions grows increasingly mature, a path forward for addressing the climate and air quality impacts from these vehicles is emerging. Currently, HDVs are the sec...

2025-02-25 31 333.51KB 15页
欧洲央行：机构投资者和房价（英文版）

Institutional investors, such as investment funds, are playing an increasingly important role in residential real estate markets. This raises the possibility that their actions might drive aggregate market outcomes and may change how and which macrof...

2025-02-25 28 3.06MB 52页
欧洲央行：气候变化政策和技术：与机构和治理的传播和互动（英文版）

Climate change is a global-scale structural change, affecting economies across the world, alongside global fragmentation, digitalisation and demographics. This paper analyses the diffusion of climate policies and technologies and the role of institut...

2025-02-25 23 2.42MB 43页
世界银行：向税务人员撒谎还是接受帮助？来自坦桑尼亚中小企业新型实验的证据（英文版）

This paper presents the results from a novel field experiment that examined the impact of in- creasing the presence of revenue authority officers on tax compliance and tax morale among small and medium-size enterprises in a lower-income country. The ...

2025-02-25 149 741.21KB 32页
中国社会科学院世经政所：稳外资：现状、挑战及应对

2024 年前三季度我国直接投资、证券投资、其他投资三项均出现净流出。外商对华直接投资放缓，我国对外直接投资加速，直接投资净流出幅度有所扩大。此外，虽然外商对华证券投资状况趋好，但我国的短期资本净流出仍在扩大。对直接投资进行分析，可以认为此轮流入下降更多由短期因素驱动，对华长期投资降幅较小，外资下降是从前期高位的回归，要应对外资下降需要综合手段。在复杂的外部环境下，为实现稳外资，我国需要多管齐下，通过综合施策和精准施策，增强对长期资本的吸引力，同时关注影响短期资本流动的因素。...

2025-02-25 65 1.75MB 9页
中国社会科学院世经政所：大国无战争时代美国弱联盟体系与新型地区秩序竞争

在大国有战争时代，稳固的强联盟是霸权国增加实力、获得战争胜利从而以自身偏好塑造国际秩序的有效途径。大国无战争时代和内嵌型的对手特征增加了霸权国对弱联盟的使用偏好，核武器的出现、主权原则深入人心和经济相互依赖使得大国之间爆发战争变得异常困难，同时，作为霸权国的美国面对的竞争对手内嵌于其主导的国际秩序，中国与美国的亚太盟友有着紧密联系，因此弱联盟成为美国参与亚太地区规则秩序竞争的有效补充策略。弱联盟基于实用主义取向，可以基于不同议题不断重新选择小集团成员，更具灵活性塑造基于规则的秩序。美国...

2025-02-25 62 1.56MB 12页
中国社会科学院世经政所：中国与中亚国家农业经贸合作：状况与方向

近来，中国与中亚五国农业合作不断深化，农产品贸易快速发展。中国与中亚的农产品贸易主要集中于哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦，与塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦的农产品贸易额相对较小。中国从中亚五国进口的农产品以谷物、食用油籽、棉花和棉纱线为主，对中亚出口主要以水果和杂类食品为主，存在规模小、产品结构单一、区域不平衡等问题。中国对中亚五国的农业投资规模不高、波动较大，以绿地投资为主，并购投资规模很小，主要分布于哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦三国。投资领域存在投资壁垒较高、土地...

2025-02-25 66 1.55MB 26页
世界银行：中低收入国家工人接触人工智能的情况（英文版）

Research on the labor market implications of artificial intelligence has focused principally on high-income coun tries. This paper analyzes this issue using microdata from a large set of low- and middle-income countries, applying a measure of pote...

2025-02-24 202 2.17MB 37页
世界银行：更好的道路，更好的道路？坦桑尼亚道路升级的证据

空间隔离被认为是贫困的主要决定因素之一。因此,许多运输投资都是以减少贫困为明确目标而进行的。本文评估了坦桑尼亚一项修复了2500公里主要道路的计划对农村生计的影响。分析使用了大量的描述家庭行为的变量,以提供完整的调整图景。识别方法包括结合家庭固定效应策略与倾向得分匹配。在干预后的两年内，该计划对农村人口产生了某些不利影响:稻米价格下降:家庭将劳动力重新分配到农业以外的领域,并提供更多工资工作,但工资收入的增加并不能弥补农业收入的损失。此外,在消费层面,家庭似乎也没有从稻米价格的下降中受益。这些结...

2025-02-21 250 1.8MB 20页

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