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国际清算银行：量化宽松和紧缩政策对企业有何影响？（英文版）

We examine the effects of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) policies on firm-level financing and real economic outcomes. We construct a novel time series of maturity-specific balance sheet shocks to l...

2025-09-10 0 1.18MB 93页
国际清算银行：银行的监管风险承受能力（英文版）

In managing their capital, banks balance the risk of breaching regulatory requirements against the cost of maintaining and speedily restoring “management” buffers. Using 68 quarters of data on 17 US and 17 euro-area banks, we find systematic reductio...

2025-09-10 0 801.7KB 31页
国际清算银行：资本之谜（英文版）

Can a central bank raise interest rates and still see real (inflation-adjusted) rates immediately fall? If so, can we trust the gap between real interest rates and their natural level to be a reliable guide? I explore a puzzle that arises when moving...

2025-09-10 0 2.55MB 105页
世界银行：算法和官僚-塞内加尔税务审计选择的证据（英文版）

Can algorithms enhance bureaucrats’ work in developing countries? In data-poor environments, bureaucrats often exercise discretion over key decisions, such as audit selection. Exploiting newly digitized micro-data, this study conducted an at-scale fi...

2025-09-10 0 2.65MB 105页
龚戈勇：一种基于5G技术的AI智慧养老服务平台设计

:当前国内智慧养老系统面临着数据采集准确性、无延迟快速通信连接、人工智能干预程度不足等技术难题,基于此,设计一种基于 5G 网络、人工智能、边缘计算等新兴技术的智慧养老服务平台,通过 5G 定制化专网为养老业务提供低时延、高可靠的通信连接,实现跨系统、终端之间数据的互联互通,促进养老服务资源、服务系统之间的智慧化协同。...

2025-09-10 0 1.32MB 6页
AMRO：LSTM多变量时间序列系统中的冲击传播（英文版）

Long-short term memory networks (LSTMs) offer a promising approach for analyzing shock propagation in multivariate economic and financial systems. To harness this potential, we introduce the LSTM multiplier response function, analogous to the impulse...

2025-09-09 0 1.05MB 44页
欧洲议会：迈向全面且有益的军事流动性方法（英文版）

Military mobility, defined as the capacity of armed forces to swiftly move troops and equipment across the European Union (EU), is a crucial but long-overlooked aspect of European defence. After decades of underinvestment and unresolved obstacles, th...

2025-09-09 0 899.25KB 12页
斯坦福商学院：为什么人们选择极端候选人？身份相关性的作用（英文版）

Elected officials are increasingly extreme. Research trying to understand this trend has tended to focus on structural factors, such as primary elections and changes in the supply of candidates. Less emphasis has been placed on psychological perspect...

2025-09-09 0 4.2MB 20页
韩振燕：数字技术赋能智慧养老的内在逻辑、困境指向与实践进路——基于技术-组织-环境分析框架

打造高质量的智慧养老服务是转变传统养老服务模式、顺应时代发展、积极应对人口老龄化的必然要求。基于“技术-组织-环境”的T0E分析框架,数字技术赋能智慧养老的内在逻辑主要体现为以数字技术为驱动力、以养老需求为推动力、以政策方针为牵引力一并存在数字挑战的技术困境、主体约束的组织困境和支持不是的环境困境。数字技术赋能智慧养老要实现数字技术的深度融合、提升组织的数字能力、构建数字包容型社会，从而实现养老服务的高质量发展。...

2025-09-08 0 1.02MB 6页
政府研究所：改变方向-如何快速改革公务员系统（英文版）

The fast stream is the civil service’s flagship talent development programme. It has become a staple of the graduate recruitment market and is regularly rated as one of the top graduate employers in the country. It is now an essential pipeline for ge...

2025-09-04 0 1.8MB 56页
国际劳工组织（ILO）：在数字时代导航工人的数据权利（英文版）

Over recent decades, comprehensive data protection legislation has proliferated worldwide, with a majority of jurisdictions enacting robust statutory regimes. Despite this abundance of legal standards, persistent challenges remain regarding the effic...

2025-09-04 0 1023.26KB 67页
美联储：当尾部很重时：GARCH模型的方差目标、非高斯、准最大似然估计的好处（英文版）

In heavy-tailed cases, variance targeting the Student’s-t estimator proposed in Bollerslev (1987) for the linear GARCH model is shown to be robust to density misspecification, just like the popular Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE). The resul...

2025-09-04 0 1.6MB 79页
美联储：地缘政治风险与全球银行业（英文版）

How do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopolit...

2025-09-04 0 1.63MB 77页
美联储：期权定价的局部估计：利用市场状态信息改进预测（英文版）

We propose a novel estimation framework for option pricing models that incorporates local, state-dependent information to improve out-of-sample forecasting performance. Rather than modifying the underlying option pricing model, such as the Heston-Nan...

2025-09-04 0 1.81MB 53页
世界银行：疫情世界中的贸易促进组织（英文版）

A 2021–22 Survey of Trade Promotion Organisations (TPOs) conducted by the World Bank to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic affected their functioning uncovers significant heterogeneity in TPOs’ characteristics across countries, but also income leve...

2025-09-04 3 9.06MB 19页
国际清算银行：东亚的R*：商业周期、金融周期和溢出效应（英文版）

This paper provides new estimates of the neutral interest rate, or r*, with a frequency domain approach using quarterly data from China, Japan, Korea, and the US. Utilizing band spectrum regressions, we estimate two types of neutral rates, which hold...

2025-09-04 0 1.58MB 44页
国际清算银行：趋同需要什么？金融和资本的作用（英文版）

Basic macroeconomic models predict convergence: that poor countries will grow faster than, or catch up to, rich countries. The empirical evidence for these predictions has at times suggested unconditional or divergence. More recent data indicate conv...

2025-09-04 0 568.28KB 30页
欧洲央行：打开局部投影的黑匣子（英文版）

Local projections (LPs) are widely used in empirical macroeconomics to estimate impulse responses to policy interventions. Yet, in many ways, they are black boxes. It is often unclear what mechanism or historical episodes drive a particular estimate....

2025-09-04 0 5.05MB 67页
欧洲央行：地理与收入：碳税的异质性效应（英文版）

The distributive effects of carbon taxation are critical for its political acceptability and depend on both income and geographic factors. Using French administrative data, household surveys, and matched employer-employee records, we document that ru...

2025-09-04 0 7.78MB 69页
欧洲央行：央行与非专家的沟通：来自大规模实地实验的见解（英文版）

We conducted a randomized field experiment to investigate the impact of direct central bank communication on the monetary policy knowledge and expectations of non-experts. Between 2022 and 2025, at the ECB Visitor Centre, we exposed nearly 5,000 part...

2025-09-04 0 2.15MB 72页

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