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他者观念塑造全球治理合作的路径分析

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2025-01-04 36 1.08MB 25页
人工智能和机器学习对网络安全的影响（英文版）

As internet technology proliferate in volume and complexity, the ever-evolving landscape of malicious cyberattacks presents unprecedented security risks in cyberspace. Cybersecurity challenges have been further exacerbated by the continuous growth ...

2025-01-03 69 2.76MB 273页
OpenAI：2024代理型AI系统管理实践（英文版）

Agentic AI systems—AI systems that can pursue complex goals with limited direct supervision— are likely to be broadly useful if we can integrate them responsibly into our society. While such systems have substantial potential to help people more effi...

2024-12-26 63 369.4KB 23页
美联储：测度通货膨胀与新凯恩斯模型（英文版）

Researchers typically compare inflation in the new Keynesian (NK) model to published inflation measures constructed from indices like the CPI. Inflation in the standard NK model without price indexation is bounded above. The model analogue of fixed-w...

2024-12-26 37 453.76KB 12页
美联储：衡量欧元区产出缺口（英文版）

We measure the Euro Area (EA) output gap and potential output using a non-stationary dynamic factor model estimated on a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables. From 2012 to 2023, we estimate that the EA economy was tighter than the E...

2024-12-26 46 3.01MB 51页
美联储：生命周期投资组合选择与异质性股票市场预期（英文版）

Survey measurements of households’ expectations about U.S. equity returns show substantial heterogeneity and large departures from the historical distribution of actual returns. The average household perceives a lower probability of positive returns ...

2024-12-26 53 703.31KB 98页
美联储：隐藏风险（英文版）

Since 2013, large U.S. hedge fund advisers have been required to report risk exposures in their regulatory filings. Using these data, we first establish that managers’ perceptions of risk contain useful information that is not embedded in fund return...

2024-12-26 48 928.5KB 60页
美联储：治疗效果的市场解读（英文版）

Markets, likened to an invisible hand, often appear to contradict econometric assumptions that rule out spillovers of one person’s treatment on another’s outcomes. This paper provides a simple statistical framework highlighting that controls are indi...

2024-12-26 24 855.93KB 34页
国会预算办公室：提高关税的说明性政策的影响（英文版）

You asked about the budgetary, economic, and distributional effects of policies that would raise tariff rates on goods imported into the United States. Specifically, you asked the Congressional Budget Office to estimate the effects of permanently inc...

2024-12-26 26 243.51KB 9页
国会预算办公室：重新审视债务与长期利率之间的关系（英文版）

In forming its long-run projections of the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that a 1 percentage-point increase in the projected ratio of debt to gross domestic product raises average long-run interest...

2024-12-26 37 957.98KB 33页
国际清算银行：财政刺激计划和家庭预期（英文版）

Fiscal decisions develop through multiple stages of political discussions and lengthy legislative processes. We propose a measure of public attention to fiscal policy news based on Google Trends and investigate the reaction of households’ expectation...

2024-12-26 37 840KB 38页
国际清算银行：2024年零售中央银行数字货币（CBDC）架构提案（英文版）

As central banks explore retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), there is value in sharing experiences and working together on a proposed retail CBDC architecture. This architecture defines how a CBDC will be issued and circulated, and what r...

2024-12-26 65 1.68MB 22页
世界银行：双边劳工协议会增加移民吗？1960年至2020年的全球证据（英文版）

This paper estimates the impact of bilateral labor arrangements on migration between two countries. It uses comprehensive data on bilateral migration and bilateral labor agreements across all country pairs for each decade from 1960 to 2020, and emplo...

2024-12-25 180 1.64MB 49页
世界银行：偷税漏税与缴费福利环节-以生育福利为例（英文版）

This paper studies tax evasion and the contribution-benefit link in the context of maternity benefits in Hungary. Earnings and employment patterns suggest pre-pregnancy underreporting, followed by formalization of some earnings and employment during ...

2024-12-25 160 1.16MB 35页
世界银行：中东和北非地区的脱碳：能源转型、贸易和劳动力市场（英文版）

This paper examines two key questions about decarbonization and its economic implications. First, it analyzes how environmental provisions in trade agreements affect bilateral trade flows, with a specific focus on the Middle East and North Africa reg...

2024-12-25 298 948.81KB 29页
世界银行：中东和北非的极端天气冲击和企业（英文版）

The Middle East and North Africa is the most water scarce region in the world. Although studies have explored the effect of extreme weather events on agriculture, much less is known about the effect on businesses. Using geocoded firm-level data from ...

2024-12-25 487 706.47KB 26页
世界银行：气候冲击及其对阿富汗粮食安全、价格和农业工资的影响（英文版）

This study examines the effects of climate and weather shocks on Afghanistan’s agricultural economy, with an emphasis on food security, prices, and wages. By utilizing a dynamical model and a unique data set that includes monthly global and local foo...

2024-12-25 203 1.68MB 38页
世界银行：美国朋友是支持、近岸还是离岸？来自绿地投资公告的证据（英文版）

This paper examines the evolution of greenfield investment announcements—both domestic and international—for US multinational companies in response to recent global shocks. The results indicate an intensification of reshoring and nearshoring activiti...

2024-12-25 576 784.01KB 24页
世界银行：贸易政策、绿色产品和劳动力市场：来自菲律宾的证据（英文版）

Green goods trade will matter for the transition to a low-carbon global economy as well as for its adaptive capacity to climate events. This study explores green goods trade and related trade policies in the Philippines and its relationship with the ...

2024-12-25 159 2.78MB 56页
大选年美国推进“印太经济框架”的战略调整及中国应对策略

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2024-12-20 27 1.34MB 10页

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