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国际货币基金组织：巴西气候变化：主要脆弱性和机遇（英文版）

This paper assesses the Brazilian economy's exposure to climate change focusing on two key areas: agriculture and hydropower. While climate vulnerabilities are significant and recent patterns of land-use further amplify climate change risk, Brazi...

2024-09-05 49 2.63MB 32页
国际货币基金组织：北马其顿经济新校准DSGE模型概述（英文版）

This paper presents a calibrated DSGE model of the economy of North Macedonia that was developed at the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia (NBRNM) within a technical assistance project delivered jointly by the International Monetary Fun...

2024-09-05 91 2.25MB 42页
国际货币基金组织：动荡中的货币：探索自然灾害对汇率的影响（英文版）

This paper investigates the impact of natural disasters on exchange rate movements in different country groups with different exchange rate regimes. Using a panel local projection model with a high-frequency monthly dataset of 177 countries during 19...

2024-09-05 66 1.41MB 37页
美联储：近期CRE困境的决定因素：对银行业的影响（英文版）

Rising interest rates and structural shifts in the demand for space have strained CRE markets and prompted concern about contagion to the largest CRE debt holder: banks. We use confidential loan-level data on bank CRE portfolios to examine banks’ exp...

2024-09-05 43 4.33MB 43页
美联储：眼不见心不烦：附近分行关闭与小企业增长（英文版）

Since 2010, the total number of commercial bank branches in the United States has fallen by about 20%. Do branch closures meaningfully affect economic activity? We investigate the impact of branch closures on small businesses, whose credit access may...

2024-09-05 49 180.21KB 20页
世界银行：发展针灸：多维贫困的网络结构及其启示（英文版）

While development literature has come a long way in conceptualizing and measuring poverty multidimensionally, policy interventions to address it remain trapped in fragmented, sector-specific approaches. One of the main challenges in implementing inte...

2024-09-05 84 2.66MB 43页
世界银行：富裕国家社会经济不平等和流动性的数据丰富评估忽视了贫穷国家（英文版）

Advances in the scale and sophistication of individual income data compiled across high-income countries have enabled researchers to measure inequality and intergenerational mobility at a highly granular level and over long periods of time. The edite...

2024-09-05 104 309.07KB 14页
世界银行：公共投资对私人投资的“挤入”效应再探（英文版）

Current investment trends in emerging market and developing economies are not enough to meet the needs of their growing populations and will fall short of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals related to human and physical capital development. ...

2024-09-05 86 1.14MB 40页
欧洲央行：CBDC宏观经济建模：批判性回顾（英文版）

Over the last decades, macro-economists have renewed their efforts to reduce the gap between monetary macroeconomics and real-world central banking. This paper reviews how macroeconomics has since 2016 approached the possible introduction of retail c...

2024-09-05 77 1.45MB 47页
欧洲央行：2022年和2023年欧元体系货币政策工具的使用及其货币政策实施框架（英文版）

The Eurosystem implements its monetary policy through a set of monetary policy instruments (MPIs). The period covered by this report (2022-23) was dominated by high inflation, which led to a change from an easing to a tightening monetary policy envir...

2024-09-05 47 1.94MB 59页
国际清算银行：分配效率与生产率下降（英文版）

This paper evaluates the contribution of cross-sector allocative efficiency to the productivity slowdown in the US during the 1970s and 2000s. We extend the framework of Oberfield (2013) to derive sufficient statistics for allocative efficiency and d...

2024-09-04 61 1.34MB 80页
国际清算银行：墨西哥制造业的无条件趋同（1988–2018）（英文版）

In this paper, I digitize economic census data to study unconditional convergence in manufacturing labor productivity across Mexican states from 1988 to 2018. I document its existence in three digit industries at a rate of convergence of 1.22% per y...

2024-09-04 47 1.41MB 57页
国际清算银行：覆盖利率平价：一种估计中性带的预测方法（英文版）

The neutral band is the interval where deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) are not considered profitable arbitrage opportunities. After the great financial crisis, deviations from CIP are no longer short-lived, exposing some limitations of ...

2024-09-04 61 1.22MB 31页
美联储：部分住房所有权：定量分析（英文版）

A convex combination of renting and traditional homeownership—Partial Ownership (PO)—is increasingly popular in many countries. We incorporate an existing for-profit PO contract into a life-cycle model to quantify its impact on investment in housing,...

2024-09-04 68 2.69MB 63页
中国对外承包工程与东道国治理能力提升

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2024-09-03 52 1.64MB 38页
美联储：关于通货膨胀尾巴的故事（英文版）

We study probabilities of extreme inflation events in the United States and the euro area. Using a state-space model that incorporates information from a large set of professional forecasters, we generate the term structure of inflation forecasts as ...

2024-09-03 60 1.18MB 68页
国民经济研究局：中国生产和贸易模式演变的核算（英文版）

This paper studies the evolution of China's production and trade patterns during its integration into the global economy. We document and explain new facts concerning changes in production and exports at the industry and firm levels using microda...

2024-09-03 40 1.32MB 67页
美联储：金融压力下的公司债券发行：全球视角（英文版）

We use a merged global data set of security-level corporate bond issuance and firmlevel financial statement data to show that, in contrast to earlier periods of financial stress, during the COVID pandemic nonfinancial firms around the world were more...

2024-09-03 58 1.16MB 49页
欧洲央行：投资者异质性与大规模资产购买（英文版）

Large-Scale Asset Purchases can impact the price of securities directly, when securities are targeted by the central bank, or indirectly through portfolio re-balancing of private investors. We quantify both the direct and the portfolio re-balancing i...

2024-09-03 67 1.53MB 53页
欧洲央行：银行业绩的决定因素：来自复制投资组合的证据（英文版）

We construct a novel measure of bank performance, investigate its determinants, and show that it affects bank resilience, lending behaviour and real outcomes. Using confidential and granular data, we measure performance against a market-based benchma...

2024-09-03 64 2.03MB 61页

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